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Nobody wants to admit that while partial to one company or another, brand and all that, I highly doubt that within 1-2 years we can tell the difference between model output for 90% of our tasks.

Except for the 'vibe' of some of the models with their writing or testing style I am not certain I could tell you which model is which unless asked.

Switching from model to model at the moment has been seamless without extensive 1 to 1 bench-marking but most of my tasks are never 1 to 1.

Completely agree. And for companies, if things are that indistinguishable, it is going to come down to cost and enterprise security / privacy. Sure companies will be slower to switch, but they will. It will be a race to the bottom.

Training is expensive. That seems like an important incentive.

I agree. Which is why I think the bubble is going to pop in the nearish term.

Do you think there will be no consolidation in the pop?

It could be like the last SOTA lab to run out of money wins