> This final reply, leave your prediction history can judge.
with your prediction being:
> ANT/OAI balance sheet will be obviously non-sustainable in 1-2 years. They will slow down frontier spending to balance book. They will fail and either political capture to be too big to fail, or be bought out by other US tech majors.
My prediction is that both OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO, slow down some spending on infrastructure, but will otherwise be continuing on their current growth trajectories while other major US tech firms slow down their own spending. I'm not sure about their valuations but I'm not sure that really matters. Neither will be bankrupt or purchased in 1-2 years.
I also predict that China will continue to lock down its own AI companies and further halt export of models, while both American and Chinese startups continue to carve out niches for special-purpose models which continue to be behind the bleeding edge. Enterprises will increasingly spend on compute and tokens, sometimes will use low-quality models for random things, but more companies will be embracing and using AI. I also predict that China will increase spend on state of the art because the leading general purpose models will be much more useful than we think they will, and they are primarily limited by interface and workflows today. In other words, we haven't seen anything yet.
Though I'd like to add a caveat which I'm sure you'd agree is fair and I would grant you the same, these predictions would be predicated on nothing crazy happening (like a war over Taiwan).
Good chat, enjoyed it even if we disagree!