Is an interesting question whether the same will apply to AI models? Not on 1996 hardware, of course. But on 2026 hardware in 2056. Does anybody have any idea / insight?
But it's a fair bet that any kind of RSI will improve efficiency, possibly by a lot. And it's also very possible that 2056 AI will be running on some other substrate - maybe photonics, or something even more exotic - that wouldn't map cleanly to 2026 hardware.
Unlike chess, AI isn't a constrained problem, so there is no single higher ELO metric that would make performance comparable.
Computing in general has always become smaller, cheaper, faster, more portable, more energy efficient, and more connected.
So there may not even be a concept of discrete computing devices in 2056. Or of discrete software and services. Compute may be everywhere, in everything, all networked, reinventing itself continually.