I can generally see any genuine viewpoint relatively easily, but I'm having a lot of differently understanding what could possibly lead you to view things like this. Do you genuinely not see that LLMs are very likely to cause significant damage to all forms of cognitive employment?

This outcome is exactly what's driving the multi-trillion dollar valuations. The idea is that companies will be able to eliminate much of their labor and replace it with LLMs, LLM companies will rug-pull and investors get rich(er). A nice way of phrasing this is 'increasing the productivity' of companies' remaining labor forces, but it's the same outcome regardless of framing.

My optimism comes from what happens after this, but there's a high probability of rough waters on the horizon for a very large chunk of the labor force, before we enter into a new equilibrium. Trying to imagine things are just going to stay roughly the same is, in my opinion, just not a realistic view at all, almost regardless of the assumptions you make.

And given how non-independent society is now a days, shaking things up like this will likely have an unprecedented impact, even if the shaking was probably more severe from previous revolutionary leaps.