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> Open weight US based Opus 5.5 within 12 months.

Seems unlikely. Maybe open weight at all near there? That'd be great.

People say this about the frontier every time, and the open models catch up in a matter of months every time.

The open models catch up, the _US_ open models catch up much more slowly. Different incentives and cultures.

Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now.

US open weights are much worse, way more than 12 months apart compared to frontier.

> Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now.

Frontier and open weights? Yes.

Frontier and _US_ open weights? No.

I'd expect a US open weights provider to suddenly get bought or go non-open if they get near Opus 5.5 anyway.