Most finance people I’m talking to think $200-400B is a fair price. That would be an amazing story in any normal situation but a total disaster here. However sane fundamental financials just don’t support a higher number.

Challenge is while you can play games with the float size to jack up the price as existing shareholders start selling you have to convince more and more people of a sky high price when all the fundamentals and the market pulling things in the opposite direction. Employees have been royally $&@ked in prior IPOs as that story plays out.

$250b would imply the company has a $110b enterprise value. Anthropic has $140b on its balance sheet already.

At $250b it would be an acquisition target.