Looking at the S-1 lockup schedule the IPO seems doomed. They need to bring in a ton of investment, and you will have massive unlocks right as the next congress is most active authoring anti-AI bills. Who's going to buy this?
The risk for investors is they don't succeed in getting regulatory capture because without that they don't have a long term business model
If we believe all the hype about programming efficiency, then regulatory capture in the US becomes just one more in a list of many steps the current administration has taken to chase software development jobs overseas.
The current SCOTUS majority will change any ruling as needed to satisfy the wishes of the oligarchs.
The market anticipates the unlocking; when the shares become public, buyers swoop in, so the stock decline is much less than expected, if at all. There is no new information here. If everyone is expecting shares to unlock, then it’s priced into the market accordingly.
That's the primary angle of depreciation of Anthropic's outlook, is that as interest rates are running hot, they need to grow ever faster to justify the $2B target, at the same moment that they're growing slower.
2) Valuation aside, SpaceX has a massive moat. It’s crazy hard to do what they’re doing. Anthropic increasingly has zero moat, with the market rapidly coalescing around commodity open models.
"SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) was priced at $135 per share during its initial public offering on the Nasdaq on June 12, 2026."
current price is $134 , give or take a dollar.
1: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2026/06/12/spacex-op...
They’ve now got all their eggs in a new basket. A basket that isn’t entirely in working order yet, and whose market viability is still uncertain because it remains to be seen whether a market that’s used to panniers really wants a laundry hamper.
$/kg to orbit is not as important a deciding factor as many people assume it is. It’s typically a small portion of overall costs, and there are often cases where a launch provider that’s less expensive in terms of $/kg to orbit is actually more expensive in terms of total cost.
Starship is going to be a particularly weird one to adapt to. The “deploy out the side” design may make it straight up incompatible with a large subset of spacecraft. For those where it is workable, migrating commercial payloads to it may still require the development of new satellite buses, which is something SpaceX doesn’t seem to be working on for the benefit of anyone other than Starlink. And such a large rocket means most potential customers will have to plan on ridesharing with even more co-passengers, which means even more room for scheduling conflicts, compromises on initial orbit (and therefore cost to reach destination orbit), etc.
That’s just assuming Starship development goes smoothly from here on out. Which seems optimistic considering that, even by the standards of spaceflight, its development thus far arguably qualifies as cursed. Considering the gap between original design goals and reality is already historically large, I certainly wouldn’t be taking any cost estimates at face value right now. Like for any launch vehicle program, we won’t know its true capabilities and costs until it’s operational.
So many people who don't actually read and evaluate things but just buy stocks based on vibes and what they see on Twitter. Which is to say, the same people that buy and lose money on most IPOs.