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Comment by xyst | Hacker News Reader

It’s going to drop further, probably well below $1T. Still a multibillion dollar valuation though imo.

Their numbers are shit. They are brittle af. Any shift in political climate results in internal mayhem.

Same with openai

A good rule of thumb is one a tech company attaints a >$1 trillion valuation, it tends to hold in that range; e.g. see Amazon, Appl, Google, Meta, Space-X, Nvidia, etc.

So many people 6-12 months ago predicted Space-X stock would crash and burn, yet the stock is still holding strong around $130 and a valuation over a trillion dollars.

> So many people 6-12 months ago predicted Space-X stock would crash and burn, yet the stock is still holding strong around $130 and a valuation over a trillion dollars.

That's simply because they're 1) installed in the government gravy-train, and 2) part of the AI bubble. Check again in a month or two, after AI valuations become more clear and Democrats start to publicly sketch out plans for what they're going to be doing to 2028 and beyond. They've already openly announced revenge for the half-billion in political spending, and they've haven't been talking at all about going after speech on twitter (which was a huge loser), but instead going after real stuff. Going after Space-X is an easy call.

No f500 is going to sign up to use chinese models.

Until there is a large free US model, its Ant and OAI.

*Chinese hosted models, not Chinese models themselves

The major cloud providers have Chinese open weight models in their catalogs. If the model is running through your cloud provider on US soil, you're probably fine for most of corporate America.

Many F500 are already using Chinese models or models derived from them through American providers. Even Microsoft's Decision-1 Jev-like:

https://commandline.microsoft.com/microsoft-decision-1-model...

    > To build Microsoft-Decision-1, we post trained Qwen3.5-9B for fast, single-pass decision scoring and will soon rebase it on other models, including Microsoft AI (MAI) and OpenAI.

Cursor's models most famously are built on top of Kimi:

https://techcrunch.com/2026/03/22/cursor-admits-its-new-codi...

    > Cursor’s vice president of developer education Lee Robinson soon acknowledged, “Yep, Composer 2 started from an open-source base!” But he said, “Only ~1/4 of the compute spent on the final model came from the base, the rest is from our training.” As a result, he said Composer 2’s performance on various benchmarks is “very different” from Kimi’s.

So yeah, Chinese open weight models are already in F500.

If any non-US company can use US models, they can use Chinese. Chinese are way less hostile to all of us (regardless on which continent you are) than US is.

This whole fearmongering campaign may work well within US but once you cross the border it becomes funny parody in worst ways. When all this comes from current US its beyond ridiculous, I don't expect post-midterms behavior to be any less petty and dumb.

> Chinese are way less hostile to all of us (regardless on which continent you are) than US is

Who is the “all of us”?

Not the UK

https://www.independent.co.uk/bulletin/news/china-security-t...

or the EU

https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11631-2026-...

Definitely not Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India....

F500 already outsource everything in the name of cost efficiency, but you're telling me, with the opportunity to cut token costs 40x, they're going to draw the line here?

"Their numbers are shit"

Scaled from 0 to $65 billion in revenue in 5 years...

If you gave me $130B I can find a few ways to scale to $65B in 5 years too

I’ll do it for $120B

And scaled to an annual burn rate more than double that in 5 years...

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