Prediction markets are famously never wrong.
Less sarcastically though the bet on how much AI company IPO at attracts a certain type of people. People who may have a certain believe about AI companies which will bias their assumptions quite a bit.
Less sarcastically though the bet on how much AI company IPO at attracts a certain type of people. People who may have a certain believe about AI companies which will bias their assumptions quite a bit.
>>Less sarcastically though the bet on how much AI company IPO at attracts a certain type of people. People who may have a certain believe about AI companies which will bias their assumptions quite a bit.
Yeah but there is also someone on the other side.
But this number isn't a matter of market volume, is it?
It's a matter of what analysts, regulators, banks, and investors choose.
And they appear to not be that keen on a valuation that high, judging by the press.
In quite a lot of sectors, gambling on a prediction market for an outcome you can influence is frowned upon, unethical, even illegal.
To be clear, I am talking about the investment analysts who have a role in setting the IPO price, which is a (then-private) decision, not an outcome of a market. It would almost certainly be a crime for the analysts involved in pricing an IPO to make prediction market bets.
Polymarket has it at ~50% that their IPO value is between 1.25T and 1.5T. Do you think that is representative of reality? It's not like we get to flip the IPO coin ten times.
Sure, the price is the weighted average of expectations. People take either side for many reasons though. There would still be a lot of training in a perfectly efficient market because people and institutions have their own utility of money functions and other reasons to take bets (hedging their vesting stock for example).
>>. I'd look at a prediction and say "well obviously the favored side is going to win" and put all my money there, over and over again, until I was the richest mortal in the universe.
>>Polymarket has it at ~50% that their IPO value is between 1.25T and 1.5T. Do you think that is representative of reality? It's not like we get to flip the IPO coin ten times.
Yeah, it's the best guess we have.
>> It's not like we get to flip the IPO coin ten times.
That's very limited frequentist perspective. Just because you can't re-run the experiment doesn't mean you can't assign probabilities to events.
One time events have no probability, they happened exactly as they happened and no outer outcome can be assigned probability besides 0
OpenAI will be just fine, they are building superintelligence. I think these comments will be pretty funny in a few years. This is the best wealth building opportunity of my generation.
This has nothing to to with the recent EO, it has been known for some time that the labs are racing towards ASI.
Because this is not a topic you're familiar with, I would recommend some light reading on it before returning to the topic and commenting on it with such confidence.
A good starting point would be reading some of the perspectives of some of the people that built the modern LLM. I promise you they understand the technology and its potential better than you, and were discussing these things well before it was even a concept in your mind.
Edit: sneaky edit bud. The term existing for a while doesn’t make the uptick in use of said term since the EO, right before trillion+ IPOs, to describe what the frontier labs are building, less of a “funny” coincidence. The people you tell me I should listen to standing to make big bucks on me believing them makes it, at the very least, ever so slightly suspicious.
There are no serious people left who believe this anymore
Only if you think the stock is undervalued... supposedly you are buying stock at the fair price of capital.