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While it's an interesting question whether Anthropic and OpenAI can capture that value, I find the telecom comparisons not so apt.

In this comparison they are more like Apple and Google: they are ahead in research and are able to offer better technology than their competitors.

The six month gap between the open-weight models and the frontier has not closed yet.

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Tne value gap is closing, as corporates wind back token budgets towards relative sanity and reassess what they're getting for their money.

The bubble exists because c-suite people are sheep. They follow the herd, and the frontier CEO wolf-wannabes have been trying to herd them in a profitable direction.

But herds are easily frightened, and there's always a danger they'll stampede in a different direction.

And the risk of a catastrophic AI-enhanced online blackout is increasing.

I disagree. For my own enterprise job, Opus 5.5 with a $500/month API budget is the best option.

The cheaper open-weight ones, even if they were available with our enterprise contracts, would be a huge downgrade.

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