AI R&D Is Accelerating Towards Potential RSI in 2027

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AI R&D Is Accelerating Towards Potential RSI in 2027 ZVI MOWSHOWITZ 11 HOURS AGO

METR came out with an extensive report on how much AI is accelerating AI R&D at Anthropic, and thus how close we might be to recursive self-improvement (RSI) and how far that might go.

This is one of the most important questions in the world.

Their answer: Things are already accelerating on the order of a 2x speedup.

This is several months ahead of the AI 2027 timeline. A naive extrapolation says we may be less than a year away from full RSI. There are no clear bottlenecks in the way.

This report updated many towards shorter timelines.