To deter bioterrorism, U.S. imposes new rules on ordering synthetic DNA
science.org
science.org
The framing of nations as inherently in competition with each other doesn’t track for me. Sometimes, in specific instances, nations will be in competition, but finland having a good or bad education system does not impact me even slightly.
Yet you do depend on Linux.
Where it tracks for you or not isn't relevant. It tracks for Putin and he's been extremely clear about that for hours and hours of extremely boring monologues :P
I don’t disagree they’re encouraging the collapse of other nations - i just disagree as to why
Personally I find it grating and it smells of racism.
You keep missing my point. Idgaf if putin says nations are in competition, that doesn’t make it true. Idgaf if he believes what he says, that doesn’t change that it’s a monster’s way to view the world.
Blaming "the government" for toxic tap water and runaway prices is like blaming the getaway car instead of the bank robbers.
Blaming the government for toxic tap water is like blaming an organised private/public coalition of bank robbers for a bank robbery.
>it was systematically bought and gutted so private balance sheets wouldn’t have to carry the cost of your cancer.
The US Government, day 1, was bought and sold to defend the right to own slaves, even from the predation of states that had made it illegal. It's not some recent malformation that it just started defending the interests of rich people over poor people lmao. The explicit purpose of the US government is to do the shit it does. The machine has been designed well, not poorly.
"...this sparkling analysis from Wood (History/Brown Univ.; ed., The Rising Glory of America, 1971) impressively argues that [the American Revolution] was anything but conservative. Wood's contention that the Revolution was ``the most radical and far-reaching event in American history'' may stretch the point (did it really have more of an impact than the Civil War?). But from now on it will be hard to argue that the rebellion was a genteel event that left fundamental institutions unscathed. Wood pictures colonial society as overwhelmingly deferential—to king, to family patriarch, and to aristocrats—with ``personal obligations and reciprocity that ran through the whole society.'' But patriots such as Adams, Jefferson, and Franklin, aspiring to become gentlemen, resented this entrenched order of patronage and kinship. Their classical republicanism stressed benevolence and government by an enlightened elite. To their dismay, however, they discovered that their rhetoric unleashed all the latent entrepreneurial and egalitarian energies of American life, which even the elaborate mechanism of the Constitution could not completely contain. Among the results, Wood says, were a new concept of the dignity of labor, improvements in the lot of women, the first significant antislavery movement, and the frank acceptance of private interest underlying the political party system. Above all, Wood suggests, the Revolution produced the messy, fractious politics of liberal democracy, dominated by ordinary people pursuing commercial interests."
https://www.kirkusreviews.com/book-reviews/gordon-s-wood/the...
Commerce gets in the way of ideals.
In a war to formalise slavery through less obvious means. Black Codes, Jim Crow whathaveyou.
The entire concept of pairing slave states with non-slave states tells you how on board the north was with slavery as long as it wasn't done near them.
If England hadn't shut down the trans-atlantic slave trade let's face it, the USA would probably still be doing it today.
The US voluntary shut down transatlantic imports long before the Civil War: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Act_Prohibiting_Importation_of...
The north thought that slavery would naturally wither away, and went to war after concluding that it would not.
Other major slave economies in the Western Hemisphere (Brazil and Cuba) outlawed slavery many years after the US did. Parts of Africa did not abolish until the 1900s: https://old.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/zsnr8q/year_of_abo...
The evil billionares and megacorps as evil as they may be mostly don't give a shit about the minutia that people want to use to get one over on each other.
++coronavirus though...
A bad pathogen could go world wide, but you could trash multiple cities with online attacks. No electricity, no water, no communications. Things would get bad.
Also, see the "lab leak" discourse. To me the question seemed irrelevant because the countermeasures would be exactly the same, but that's not how other people think; they're not interested in a mask mandate against a naturally occuring virus, but if they can tie the exact same genetically identical virus to a human enemy? The social status of the threat goes up!
Regular old measles? Not sexy. But a convenient vector for the internal threat. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/11/08/americas-measles-ep...
Made-up AI-assisted super-measles? Doesn't exist yet. But it's a great super sexy threat to defend against. You just have to ignore the kids dying of boring old regular naturally occuring measles in the meantime.
Oh, that's what it is? I never had a model for such thinking.
A new bioweapon let lose would be incredibly difficult to contain, and could potentially become something we have to contend with forever
The release of mirror life, or animal-borne pathogens with a long incubation period that infect humans, where the animals are in our cities — is pretty much game over.
I have been talking about this for over a decade now. No one seemed to care.
Giving everyone a simulated wuhan virus lab and hoping NO ONE will do anything bad with it is the stupidest idea ever. The chances of no one releasing anything with a long incubation period are effectively zero. And if anyone releases it, the chances of civilization surviving aren’t great.
All this so we can build slightly better local agents to send email, eh?
But if it's anything like materials design, better computational simulation is one tiny part of the RnD process.
A more credible threat would be a 1-man lab, with a fully automated setup, continuously working on a bioweapon.
But any hosted AI provider would immediately flag that. The risk would be local, abliterated models.
Not saying that the situation is good, but, am I missing something?
Can AI even simulate a virus / protein folding / etc. with any degree of accuracy? or does it just orchestrate open source tools that were already available?
(Russia's own stats agency says they've lost 450,000 soldiers in Ukraine – dead, not wounded – roughly equivalent to the number of American KIA across all of World War 2)
But afterwards, the Russian have started a horrible drone bombing campaign from the other bank of the river, targeted on the civilians[1], with small quadcopeter dropping grenades on grannies walking their dogs or fpv drones blowing up civilians cars.
[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_safari_(terror_campaign)
That said:
What if a different group near simultaneously makes one targeting people with no copies of the HbS/HbA gene?
(One copy: resist malaria; two copies: sickle cell anaemia)
Convincing a lot of people to go kill other people is really hard. Doing it in secret is nearly impossible. But 1-3 people making a virus? Easier every day.
For millions, one failed Austrian painter did it by writing a book. From my understanding, it wasn't even considered a well-written book at the time, though my ability to read German is currently B1 (which is barely functional) and I wouldn't care to read that book anyway.
Hundreds of thousands, I can unfortunately think of a variety of ways; I hope they would not work outside of a film, but I will not suggest them on the off-chance they might work.
How many would you estimate Andrew Wakefield was responsible for?
We do not need the entire global order configured into a specific point of political/economic/military tension, we do not need a media apparatus to fall into lock step, and we do not need a once-in-a-lifetime orator speaking to a recently disgraced industrial powerhouse nation.
The scenario we're talking about takes roughly: 1. Create pathogen, 2. Release it
Right now, Step 1 is very, very hard. Today it would take something closer to a Hitler to marshal the resources for such a project and not get stopped early on. But as the Step 1 becomes more accessible, the person required to achieve it, and the context in which a person could succeed, becomes much less special.
On the scale of "billions", right now it is impossible, not merely hard. As you say, it (likely) gets easier as the tech improves; myself, I am happy for things to get locked down ahead of time, but right now this wouldn't be possible for even a large and well-resourced racist government.
Tens of millions is possible, c.f. covid, albeit with essentially no control over who the victims will be, likewise c.f. covid.
From professional virologists discussing this specific risk.
The TL;DR (because I'm not a virologist myself, not just because this is a comment section) is that lethality works in opposition to all the things that make a pathogen more contagious, including long latency periods and choices of transmission vector and so on.
Even the worst case historical scenarios are things we now have a lot of tools for at the level of transmission vectors while we develop vaccines.
> impossible to engineer
Today. Impossible to engineer today. I would not wish to let anyone coming to the conversation late mistake this as an "impossible forever" kind of situation.
You've all received memetic inoculations to that though. Unlikely, anyone will ever be able to write a book that does the same again. (Never mind that the book didn't do the damage, he did, the book was just a side effect. Never mind that it only worked in one peculiar economic environment which hasn't been repeated since. Never mind that zoomers are on the verge of never reading books again.)
I wish it were so, but even the memorial stones and constitutional bans on the party and its symbolism didn't completely stop the original memes, let alone things which rhyme with them: https://cybernews.com/security/afd-email-datat-leak-germany/
> (Never mind that the book didn't do the damage, he did, the book was just a side effect.
The book was kinda a big part of how he gained the power.
> Never mind that it only worked in one peculiar economic environment which hasn't been repeated since.
He's hardly been the only genocidal monster to rise to power, even in that century; just one of the more infamous ones.
> Never mind that zoomers are on the verge of never reading books again.)
So the next one only needs to tweet a lot? This isn't an improvement.
Who?
Sorry if this seems obvious, but I grew up in the UK which liked to think it was "America's greatest ally", and I don't think this number is of the UK?
2 bad things can be threats at the same time. Even 10,000 things can be.
If an infected animal tries to kiss a person no danger whatsoever. If it tries to bite a person, bypass the skin, and the animal's saliva enters the bloodstream, it is only then that rabies lethality rate is relevant, but why should that be important? Do animals with sharp teeth pose to us any danger nowadays?
> Dog-mediated rabies kills tens of thousands [0] of people every year, many of whom are children. The disease is present in over 150 countries and territories across the globe
https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/themes/topics/Rabies
0 : Around 15k in 2023 but the trends continue to go down.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/incidence-and-prevalence-...
Rabies infection is more difficult, but if you do get infected it's practically guaranteed to kill you without vaccination. It's likely possible to design viruses to resist vaccination too, e.g. splicing in human proteins to disguise them from the immune system, or using parts from a virus like HIV where we've failed to make a vaccine.
But the combination of both high infectivity and high lethality is an evolutionary dead end. Any virus that wipes out its host goes extinct too. A human-designed virus doesn't have this limitation. Look at what we've done with selective breeding in agriculture to see how much can be achieved when you optimize for things other than reproductive fitness. I'm certain that the range of physically possible viruses contains things far worse than anything naturally occurring.
Consider also that if somebody can automate virus design, they can scale it up and design hundreds of different ones. If they release them all at once humanity won't stand a chance.
This however does not prove that no building has an elevator, nor that a building cannot be built with an elevator.
The risks for bioterrorism are not limited by what commonly exists, but what can exist, or what can be built to exist.
Whether to be more afraid of nature's bioweapons, or human built ones, I don't know. But both exist.
I can imagine that terrorist are sad now that they cannot use their preferred advanced bioengineering skills acquired through great efforts posing as scientist towards the so far unsuspecting services providing them with harmful DNA building blocks and now have to turn to much much more pedestrian methods instead of the heightened sophistication they crave.
Or to sources from other countries.
Assuming you have a medium city (half million people) and a suitably toxic substance (assuming something like dimethylmercury where you'd need at least 100mg per person => 50kg for the city), then you need to dump a lot of it into the water supply, because people use a lot more water than they actually ingest or even come into direct contact with (every person uses ~100l/day, but realistically ingest only like 2-5l).
So you'd need to dump literally a ton of an extremely toxic substance directly into the drinking water supply. I'm not concerned because that seems difficult enough (and likely to get the perpetrator caught beforehand while ordering mercury compounds by the barrel or sth).
I'm not saying it's easy, I don't know that. Just that the bar isn't as high as the one you've chosen.
Note that I did not say kill no one, just that it's not necessary to kill _everyone_ in order to create a crisis. It only takes a relatively small amount of injury and death to achieve the effect. The anthrax crisis in the early 2000s, for example, only had 22 confirmed infections but demonstrates the amplification of emotional salience very well.
Correct, but the point here is that bioweapons should be higher priority because they're easier, cheaper and more effective than chemicals.
AI is already killing people, from denial of medical coverage to civilian casualties when an overwhelmed soldier just clicks "Ok". But worrying about AI viruses is easier than accepting that terrorist attacks are low-tech and, statistically speaking, the next one will probably be performed with a car, a gun, or a knife.
All it takes is one of these crypto/ai-grifter-30-under-30-chuckle fucks with more money than brains to put a lab together and create the actual torment nexus, and we are all fucked.
We know we don't get to see the bio side of the top models. They're out there solving hard maths problems etc but a query with the word 'microbes' in it often kicks you back to a smaller model automatically.
Are the bleeding edge models finding something scary enough that can be done with synthetic DNA that it needs to be restricted asap?
This is old stuff, being implemented and getting lots of news.
but for bio... I don't think we have 99.999999% accuracy simulation, and experiments aren't "0.00001 cent"
so we have to rely a lot on existing data or pay a lot
You don't need AI to generate known toxin or pathogen sequences (as these are already known).
And if AI could design novel toxins, this screening wouldn't catch those anyway.
LLMs don't understand a thing about DNA that humans don't. Even what are frequently called "foundation models" in bio, that have been trained on sequence data, have results indistinguishable from replace model weights with random numbers. Because "training" here doesnt have the same sort of complex internal function that something like proteins structure prediction has; what you're training for is mere sequence similarity to known pathogens.
The answer is none. It's speculated risk, potential risk. Not a demonstrated risk.
Novel viruses are not pathogens, and in fact it's right there in the article that they are phage for bacteria.
Moreover they ordered these viruses and build them through exactly the same DNA manufacturers that are subject to these regulations. They are not pathogenic and can not infect human cells.
But new viruses that do infect human cells are created all the time. It's common for experimental gene therapy treatments.
That's entirely different from the type of screening needs to predict pathogens. We don't have the technology to predict if a novel sequence is going to be able to bind to some arbitrary human cell surface receptor and allow entry of a virus into the cell and infect it. Much less predict what would make it contagious, etc.
All that comes down to searching for sequence similarity to known pathogens, viruses, etc., and when there's a hit, vetting the person ordering the sequence.
It's not like you can prompt it to create super AIDS in an afternoon but I'm sure an uncensored model could help you do real harm.
I see LLMs as being essentially irrelevant for whether someone can do this. It's lab skills, planning skills, biological experiment debugging skills.
"Why did my plasmid not start getting expressed, how did I screw up?" "How do I make this huge protein" aren't LLM questions, they're university level biology questions, and "why is my protein growth tank not making the thing I want, and what is the grey stuff, do I need to put clean it again" is an experience question.
Putting checks on DNA synthesis puts making the horrible stuff out of the range of what high schoolers can do though.
I'd assumed they already do this, and if you order Smallpox primers or w/e from Sigma/IDT you get a visit?
I have a home lab; wonder if there will be practical effects. Also have a personal project where I'm exploring enzymatic oligo synthesis. (Different set of pros/cons from the traditional phosphoramidite synthesis)
Something like this is suspected to have happened to us humans: the black plague has been pressuring/selecting individuals with more active and strong immune systems. Today the plague isn't so active or deadly to humans, but stronger immune systems are probably behind auto-immune illnesses (https://aihep.org/post/the-bubonic-plague-and-autoimmune-dis...).
I got into this hobby briefly (pre-LLMs) before realising how much of a loaded gun it is, and that I’m just not qualified to safely muck around with this stuff.
Usually the synthesis of oligonuclotides is done with phosphoramidite chemistry [0]. So tell us more about those enzymes to make DNA molecules from scratch.
[0] https://www.twistbioscience.com/blog/science/simple-guide-ph...
Unless we are talking about really long oligos (which is harder and $$$), you’ll need some post-synthesis enzymatic work to get your full strand.
I guess it's not a bad idea to put basic hurdles in place but it would be a serious mistake to see this as any sort of comprehensive preventative. DNA just isn't difficult to manipulate.
This reeks of the Longtermists getting their influence into government. They were doing an entire round on YouTube about a year ago.
Kind of like owning your own darkroom, back in the day of analog photography.
This works in aqueous solution under mild conditions and enables synthesis of much longer oligos (~1,000 bases), which can subsequently be assembled into 50 kbp constructs.
Not sure about that inkjet printer analogy.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10867077/
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S266654252...
And yes, phosphoramidites are what you use as ink. You print many many dots on a flat surface, and then you print over the same dots again and again, building up layers one base at a time. Then you dissolve those dots, giving you short strands in solution, which can be assembled into longer strands by being strategic about what else is in that solution and about which sequences you programmed in to the printer.
I've been considering making one in my garage. I don't think it's going to be easy, but I also don't think it's going to be difficult enough to be a good candidate for use as a regulatory chokepoint. We're not talking about a warehouse full of centrifuges here, it's a printer with special ink.
But Esvelt points out the policy only requires screening for DNA sequences 50 base pairs or longer. A would-be bioterrorist, he argues, could easily stitch together a dangerous sequence from much smaller fragments ordered from multiple different suppliers. Esvelt says he has built an algorithm capable of screening sequences as short as 30 base pairs for their risk potential and made it freely available. “That’s the main flaw in an otherwise pretty great policy,” he says. “Don’t bother building a fence if there’s going to be an obvious huge gap in it.”
So, a song and dance of doing something that will most likely just inconvenience people doing real work.Also, DNA chemistry is very well established. Someone with the appropriate background could easily assemble oligos without too much difficulty. I guess this stops Little Johnny from printing ebola from the internet.
Why does he call it an "otherwise pretty great policy"?
He's claiming that the policy needs to be more comprehensive. You're concluding that it doesn't pass a cost/benefit test. That's not at all the same claim!
Seems like this has little to do with deterring terrorism then, considering the assumption that a terrorist may not be a US government funded scientist.
But yes, this is stupid. No one who is inclined to build a biological WMD is going to be more than mildly inconvenienced by supply restrictions. DNA isn't plutonium.
"procure synthetic nucleic acids and benchtop synthesis equipment from U.S.-approved suppliers. Those vendors must verify their customers’ identities and screen orders for potentially dangerous sequences that, for example, could encode toxins or pathogens."
If this was just about feds self-policing, they wouldn't have the customer identity requirement.
Probably they're taking this route because AI is moving fast and Congress moves slowly.
I am detecting a bit of frustration here.
(Also, my comment is great, because I wrote something instead of nothing.)
Cluade find how to time travel, Make no mistakes!
When you then look at the mafia in charge of the USA right now, run by oligarchs and other shady criminals, you ultimately have an apartheid system at work now, because these top-down pseudo-kings can control what others can do. Everyone is monitored and a potential terrorist now. Now imagine that DNA can be patented (I don't refer to right now, but look how ESTs (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expressed_sequence_tag) in the 1990s could be patented) - and suddenly you will have a state-run mafia decide which monopolist can yield de-facto control, with a few minor companies roleplaying the "it's still capitalism!!!" when in reality it no longer is.
Carry on, everything is apparently fine.