A majority of people are purchasing the phone they can afford first. Status purchases are for a more select population.
And the phone you can afford is more likely to have Bada.
And the phone you can afford is more likely to have Bada.
Android hit 200 million activations in November 2011. It hit over 500 million in September 2012.
Assuming the $15 fee was in effect when Android hit 200 million, then Google got roughly $4.5 billion in licensing fees in less than a year. Even Google (earning roughly $2.8 billion last quarter) would probably have trouble hiding that much pocket change in an earnings statement.
Now that you mention the number of activations, it's obvious Samsung is not paying that price.
However, if Google is discriminating between OEMs then that makes more sense. The typical terms (that, say, Samsung or HTC gets) might be quite generous, but the Indian OEMs don't get the same deal. I find it a bit surprising that Google couldn't come up with better terms for the huge but poor Indian market, but maybe there were non-export clauses or something similar that got in the way.