If you saw a bunch of activity happening milliseconds before it should, why would you be the other party to someone you suspect is committing fraud? You will be the primary victim of the fraud.
If you saw a bunch of activity happening milliseconds before it should, why would you be the other party to someone you suspect is committing fraud? You will be the primary victim of the fraud.
If no such report had come out milliseconds later, the activity wouldn't be suspect. How could a person (or in this case, given the timeframe, an algorithm) possibly distinguish this spike from a 'legitimate' spike? It doesn't make sense to blame the victim of a fraud when the victim has no way of knowing at the time that they are being defrauded.
If the time that the report was due out was not known in advance, I could see this being suspicious. But just finding a flurry of activity at a time when you judge that it might have been prudent to wait and read the news first, that is not any evidence of illegal activity or fraud.
It is evidence that these day traders are getting more confident in the ability of their robots. That is true.
Rule # Evleventy Billion Six Hundred Thirty Eight: Look around the room and try to spot the sucker. If you can't find him...
The question is who gets to do the fleecing of the rubes.
So if someone did figure out a way to play the system and get it a little early that's interesting... if someone on the inside is playing fast and loose to make sure the right people get first crack at any small orders that happen to have been left in the system, that's a problem.
But, yeah, it shouldn't be super big bucks at stake...beyond some small initial volume, anyone you're going to trade with is going to know what's up.