'Artificial' earthquake detected in North Korea may be nuclear test
theaustralian.com.au
theaustralian.com.au
Aside from "issuing even more sanctions" what options are available to the UN? Good luck trying to send in a team of people to destroy the nuclear program, that will all but invite a warhead/attack.
[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council...
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council...
PRNK's behavior right now seems to be about pushing the USA back to something like the prior agreement, likely because they see the Obama administration as more open to this possibility. Honestly this would probably be a win for everyone, particularly if it included opening up a labor trade between north and south Korea. North Korea is impoverished, but their citizenry is actually quite well educated (if indoctrinated). If economic sanctions were weakened, there's little question that access to north Korean labor would be in high demand globally. There are a lot of challenges to making this happen. Possibly the hardest are social, and will simply take the passing of generations to ease.
There are also probably important PRC PRNK relationship dimensions to all this as well, of which I'm ignorant.
So the NK government has the choice between pushing nuclear technology and missiles, which kind of works in the short run, or they can throw all their previous work in this areas away to start a rather complicated transition to a more long term strategy. Depending on how stable the regime is, it may survive the short term problems such a change of strategy creates.
Currently they have been using the threat of attacks as a bargaining chip to extract things like food shipments from the US and Japan.
Look at UAE and Singapore, it takes little time to change the economic situation. A little years here and there, with China's and India's emergence on the world scene things can change pretty rapidly. To cut US's influence in Asia, North Korea is a indispensable asset.
Allies are not permanent and US's help to Japan and South Korea is not infinite. Geopolitical situations will always change and have always changed throughout history.
Given this situation, North Korea can be a big player in the future, now imagine having the military might in this situation. It can force unification of the Korean peninsula on its terms in the future.
They are doing a pretty good job of being poor already. I don't think you can compare North Korea to those other countries, even China. North Korea is a world peculiarity; it is the way it is because of it's bizarre regime, in a way different from China. It is so totally isolated and the average person is so uninformed about what is happening less than 100 miles from it's borders. The kind of trade that would reduce North Korea's poverty, I think would topple the regime, a regime based on magical stories about unicorns and people that don't need to use the bathroom.
When he looked at all the uncertainty in the world (much caused at least indirectly by the US), his biggest fear was and continues to be North Korea.
Given the types of people I know he met with, this test does not fill me with warm fuzzies.
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/world/asia/north-korea-vow...
Yes, S Korea's not very lucky in the geography department. Actually the whole Korean peninsula.
The US had a brigade of soldiers stationed in West Berlin whose survival time was ~72 hours in the event of hostilities with the Soviets.
We almost went to war multiple times over things like geese flying over radars. Both the US and Soviets played little games like parking ballistic missiles in Turkey and Cuba to measure the reaction.
Iran has the ability to control the Straight of Hormuz. Iraq had the ability to harass shipping traffic in the Gulf. That waterway is far more important to the US (and Japan, and to a lesser extent, China) than Paris, London and Berlin.
Also, different countries and different geopolitical situations. Iran has a few allies among the superpowers (Russia, China), but they aren't very strong allies. NK has pretty strong backing by the Chinese and the US also has to deal with it's allies in Japan, Australia, South Korea, etc.
It's much easier to play hardball with a country when no one is really opposed to you doing so.
I would also venture that Iran, being a "non-secular" government where the more fundamentalist members see US influence as a threat to their religion and way of life, is more likely to foster radicalists that would try to enter the US with a suitcase bomb. North Korea has completely isolated itself and its people from US influence. Iran on the other hand has "porous" borders that permit western media and western culture to permeate. The permeation of western culture is seen by some as a threat to be stopped.
Edit: can the downvoter, please explain their down vote?
Iran on the other hand has a much smaller military than PRNK, but is very active in supporting paramilitary groups (aka terrorists, insurgents) that are aligned with their interests. The fear is, they want a nuke not to hold onto, but to give away.
So aside from any domestic political considerations (read as: Israeli lobby groups), the strategic contexts are different in important ways.
Yes N Korea can damage Seoul, but will not really 'flatten' it. Well, I hope...
They do have a fair number of dug in artillery installations that could survive several airstrikes. The basic template of these installations are bunkers under mountaintops that artillery can move rapidly in and out of. So instead of shoot and scoot more like shoot and turtle up. They may have limited resources, but the PRNK does appear to know how to deploy them quite effectively. Chemical shelling is a particular concern.
It's not that the PRNK would win an outright war, it's that they could extract a massacre no one else wants.
Look into how much artillery they can bring to bear on Seoul (they have the world's largest artillery force, and Seoul is only 35 miles from the border).
That's what the OP was talking about, not nukes.
Can you go into why? The sentiment runs at odds with Bush's obsession with Iraq/Iran.
What I can't say is if this belief in NK's leaders is based on actual intelligence or some sort or just his opinion. Given their willingness to take pot-shots at SK, I know I'm concerned about this.
However, the fact that he is worried says something to me about the answer to the question.
1) Iran
2) Iraq
3) North Korea
North Korea was not the top threat at the time.
True. Reintegration would compare very unfavorably to that of East Germany:
http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/04/09/comparing-north-kore...
Every aspect is much worse. Larger population, lower relative GDP, lower workforce skills...
http://www.aidanfc.net/a_year_in_pyongyang.html
"A Year in Pyongyang" is just fascinating. Really digs into the mechanics and psychology of a state run under a cult of personality.
It's also completely free.
The biggest takeaway: there are probably a shockingly high number of "true believers" there that would fight to the last man in any conflict.
The good news, if you could call it that, is that China doesn't want American troops stationed on it's south border, so they will do what they can to keep NK in line.
It's just sickening.
The adults are the non-nationalist people who see the world as a global community. These people are rare in politics it seems.
Is the US perfect? No. Is it a democratic, accountable country? Largely, yes. There is no perfect system of government, and people should stop pretending that everyone is on the same moral level.
The US leveled two countries in order to assassinate someone in a third country. It wasn't held accountable at all.
You are right, morally they are not on the same level, but not the way you think they aren't.
Not equating North Korea or Iran with Western democracies, that's for sure.
I agree NK has some human rights issues, that should be addressed, but testing nuclear weapons is no different to Pakistan or India, and there are no sanctions against them.
US intelligence was completely wrongfooted at the time of India's five Pokhran-II tests.
Firstly, no self respecting nation is ever going to wait for 'acceptance' and 'supervision' of some other nation. In fact that very thing implies some sort of master-slave relationship. Countries act in their own interests(just like every other country).
B.R. Myer's talk explains the motive behind NK's nuclear program pretty well.
http://www.booktv.org/Watch/11315/The+Cleanest+Race+How+Nort...
I'm referring to the inconsistency. The implication of what you are saying is: "The UN only intervenes when it suits the US". To me that makes me think LESS of the UN sanctions, not more.
On consistency: I don't think UN, as a group of nations with conflicting goals, tries to behave in a consistent way, although people are free to blame it for its inconsistency.
It is isn't it? Otherwise it isn't a union...
> That cannot explain veto power of five permanent members of UN security council, which no other country has.
That's completely true... turns out there are more problems with the UN than just being a veil for US aggression... colour me surprised.
Regardless this has nothing to do with whether sanctions should be applied for testing weapons.
No, I don't think that.
> Nobody wants an unstable, belligerent, nasty dictatorship to have the ability to nuke other countries.
The US opened this can of worms and created an imbalance in the world. North Korea is surrounded by nuclear enabled countries (China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan).
As an aside:
What exactly is 'unstable' about North Korea... it's been the same ruling family for 50 years... I realise propaganda has permeated all of our views and it's difficult to see through the fog of misinformation but think about the words you use as you write them.
North Korea (from all credible reports) is a mess, and quite horrible for A LOT of people, THAT needs to change. I would not rate it any more "belligerent" than the US. It is definitely not unstable and its Nastiness extends only as far as its borders...
Well if it isn't a general principle you are defending then simply acquiring nuclear weapons is a good thing. Now if you think North Korea should have the ability to gain nuclear weapons then you certainly support any other country also getting access to nuclear weapons.
>The US opened this can of worms and created an imbalance in the world. North Korea is surrounded by nuclear enabled countries (China, Russia, South Korea, and Japan).
Hardly. Multiple states were developing nuclear weapons at the same time and the US developed them first.
>>What exactly is 'unstable' about North Korea...
A country that keeps 200,000 of its own citizens in camps doesn't exactly seem to scream stability. Now given that China is worried about a collapse of the North Korean economy and political structure your assertion is flatly ridiculous.
>>North Korea (from all credible reports) is a mess
so it is a 'mess' yet also not unstable. Countries that can't provide basic resources to their own citizens seem to be also be unstable. I wonder why that is...
>>and quite horrible for A LOT of people, THAT needs to change.
I'm not sure how getting nuclear weapons fixes that issue. In fact, North Korea spends upwards of 50% of its GDP on the military including its nuclear program.
How many citizens are in prison in the US does that make it unstable? What a strange connection to make...
Yes the country is a mess, but the government is stable... They aren't mutually exclusive.
It doesn't matter whether nukes are going to fix the issue or not, sanctioning them for making nukes certainly isn't.
US was expecting 0.5 to 4 MILLION casualties (just on US side) to invade japan as WW2 was nearing the end. Casualty on Japan would be many times bigger (most of them civilians).
The 200,000 deaths (mostly civilian), however regrettable, by the 2 nukes was considered a 'deal' compared to what an actual invasion of japan would've been.
Seems a little unfair to Japan.
As FDR approved a project to investigate the Military Application of Uranium Detonation in October 1941. This was 2 months prior to the December 1941 Pearl Harbour attack. It seems unlikely that Japan, specifically, prompted the R&D that led to ...
In July 1945 the end result of the MAUD project came about in the Trinity tests of the first nuclear weapon, this was two months after the May 1945 German surrender, leaving the US with a weapon that needed testing and a Soviet frenemy that needed impressing.
As for the need to use nuclear weapons on Japan, well, the post war FDR FUD on that matter has obfuscated the extensive saturation bombing, using a mix of incendiaries and high explosives to burn Japanese cities to the ground that was already at play - from the Japanese perspective Hiroshima and Nagasaki were just another two cities levelled to the ground by the US, just two among the many others similarly destroyed.
There's an argument to made, and it's one for the historians, that the decisive factor for the Japanese was the fact that the Soviets were now free to invade Japanese territories. This is usually not part of the post WWII US narrative.
The North started the Korean war, not the US.
US troops maintain a balance of power in the region, which has allowed South Korea and Japan to develop into wealthy, stable industrialised democracies.
Regardless of the longevity of the Kim family, North Korea has an unsustainable and fragile economic and political system which is widely suspected to be susceptible to imminent collapse, with unknown consequences. They have also frequently staged unprovoked fatal military attacks on Southern territory in the last few years. They were caught trying to smuggle probable nuclear components to Burma. They were caught trying to smuggle an enormous shipload of drugs into Australia.
They are not in any way equivalent to the US in terms of odious behaviour in the region.
This is not strictly true - for example in recent years there has been the sinking of the Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island.
They were involved in 2 wars that had no relevance to US security, purely for ideological reasons... They are still involved in one of those wars... They lost the other one...
Great stabiliser!
But I like your attempt at hyperbole.
http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Vietnam_War_casual...
That's irrelevant. NK gaining nukes would clearly be a negative development.
Also, did you just call Japan a nuclear power? Or are you just talking about nuclear power?
It is unstable not in the sense of "who is going to rule the country." It is unstable in the sense of they behave irrationally, have irrational beliefs and motivations. The same way that we, mostly, don't think that a paranoid schizophrenic should have unlimited access to assault rifles, any sane, knowledgeable person, would not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. Wow, that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
> It is unstable not in the sense of "who is going to rule the country." It is unstable in the sense of they behave irrationally, have irrational beliefs and motivations.
Oh sure, if we redefine what "unstable" means in the context of government, then sure, you are completely correct.
> Wow, that is the dumbest thing I've ever heard.
Jerk.
India and Pakistan may have a beef with each other, but they weren't a destabilizing force in the region, or maybe more accurately, if they were, it wasn't a huge concern of the superpowers at the time.
So who is the destabilising force in the region? I'm pretty sure "stability" isn't the goal (for the US) it's "Democracy".
Uh, maybe if you ignore the magnitude of severity?
Ideologically opposed nations that were once a single nation (to over simplify a bit)
The fact that they are conducting tests is also rather interesting. The simple devices they have developed do not require any testing and given their limited plutonium stockpile they are reducing the amount of deployable weapons by conducting their third test in six years.
I assume you would have supported South Africa's nuclear program?
I am going to make this bold prediction: you are utterly ignorant of North Korean history, even in broad strokes. And this has allowed you to form utterly irrational and indeed insane opinions of that country.
Please stop commenting about the subject until you correct your ignorance.
Or do you wish to challenge my assumptions by producing extensive evidence that you are actually in fact supremely well informed about the North Korean regime and its history?
Go read my other posts in this thread. If I had one wish it would be that the DPRK regime would step down so that the rest of the world would have the "opportunity" to dig the North Korean people out of the positively savage hell-hole they are living in right now. The best case scenario is that that happens and then it costs tens of billions of dollars to fix North Korea and put them on a level of, oh, say Yemen or Bangladesh, let alone South Korea. For that I'll be happy to see an increase in my taxes.
In the meantime millions of North Korean citizens are living in a stalinist police state, many of them a hair's breadth away from conditions of starvation. Oh, and their country is under the tyranny of a megalomaniac who is happy to continue the traditions of squandering his nation's few resources to build weapons to terrorize the rest of the world (to add to the long list of efforts in the same vein using everything from terrorism, such as when they downed Korean Air Flight 858, to espionage to exporting missile technology) rather than try to dig his country out of brutal, crushing poverty.
If there was a way to get rid of the North Korean regime without causing millions of civilian deaths on the Korean peninsula I'd probably be supportive of it, even if it meant an otherwise horrifying number of civilian deaths. Every year an unknown number of North Koreans are killed by the regime, perhaps as many as tens of thousands. Some estimates are that as many as 1.5 million North Koreans were killed in gulags during Kim Il Sung's reign. This is one of those rare cases where bringing up the Nazis and Hitler does not "Godwinize" the thread and is instead a fully apt and sobering point of comparison. A holocaust of North Koreans has happened, and the only reason it hasn't received the attention it deserves is because the country is very closed off and people are more concerned about what horrible thing to the world outside of North Korea the regime is likely to do next.
Nope. This is pathological:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_an...
They use to have nukes in sk, now they don't, but can still strike nk anyway.
So that leaves the hyperbole that NK and SK could negotiate a peace if the US withdrew. Why don't you think that is possible?
How about you respond to the inaccuracies rather than being a jerk and insulting the GP?
Talk about Godwin-ing a discussion.
Furthermore, as a member of the United Nations, North Korea has agreed to abide by binding decisions of the Security Council; UNSC resolution 1718 demands that North Korea not conduct any further nuclear test. This resolution was adopted under Chapter VII, meaning that the UNSC has identified North Korea's nuclear testing as a threat to the peace.
http://www.un.org/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=S/RES/1718%2...
I'm not sure if that's what the OP was saying though.
Happy to be refuted.
/rant
Which do you think is more likely, a) the tremors are from a nuke test b) Kim Jong performed a mystical ancient Korean wardance that happened to summon an earthquake at the designated time and place?
Edit - From http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/12/world/asia/north-korea-nuc...: "Tibor Toth, executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO), said the seismic event's location was "roughly congruent with" nuclear tests carried out by North Korea in 2006 and 2009."
There is a possibility that it is a chemical explosion, if you are willing to swallow the idea that the North Koreans detonated several million kilos of military high explosives in a mine shaft somewhere. But even then, while the signature is closer to a nuclear explosion it is not identical. Maybe the seismic data from a variety of sources is damaged or defective but I'm not counting on it.
Have you considered the possibility that you are the one over-reacting? Our ability to classify seismic motion is much more sophisticated than you seem to be assuming. It is the same reason they can tell whether an earthquake swarm in a particular spot is caused by local fault activity or the imminent emergence of a volcano -- the signature is different. There is a lot more to analyzing seismic activity than just the magnitude. It is also how we do subsurface imaging for mining oil. It is a mathematically sophisticated field, give it some respect.