>Also keep in mind that before the DMCA you'd have received a lawsuit instead of a takedown in the first place.

I kind of doubt it. Filing a fraudulent lawsuit requires finding a lawyer who is willing to risk getting disbarred and putting yourself in front of a judge with the power to impose serious punishments for misbehavior. Filing a fraudulent takedown notice can be done by any jackass with an internet connection and you only get punished if the victim has the knowledge, will and finances required to hire a lawyer and go after you.