Probably. Interesting line the CFTC is taking though, since it is only able to regulate US citizen's use of commodity markets and predictions are a commodity by the definition of the law as far as I can tell [1]. The 'fiction' here is that you're actually going to by pork bellies or soy beans or oranges, when really your just buying and trading the 'right' to buy these commodities at a particular price. So "The 49'ers will win the super bowl" is a "bet" but it isn't really a commodity.

So while I could buy intrade as an unlicensed betting parlor I don't see them as a commodities trader. That said, folks don't like it when you make money that they think they should be making.

[1] http://www.cftc.gov/ConsumerProtection/EducationCenter/Futur... - "A commodity futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a particular commodity at a future date"