> In a casino, if a roulette wheel hit black 10 times in a row, somebody letting it ride on black the whole way would have made a fortune, but that doesnt mean it would have been a good bet, it means the people making those bets got lucky.

Equating a currency to a game of chance based on independent events—now that's irrational thinking.

My conclusions might not be valid, this isn't something I'm an expert at, but I really don't think that's a good example.