It's hard to hold constant all variables except one between persons. Is it reasonable to expect that a programmer with drive and skill wouldn't know about some internet lore, wouldn't know of resources like freenode and stackoverflow.com, and wouldn't know something about the variety of technologies that are out there?

The direction of causation is tricky to unwind. I think you're right, however. If a two programmers were of equal competence, except one only knew about Java and the other sat on Hacker News all day, the Hacker News reader would probably only have a small head start. However, it would be hard to find two programmers that met those descriptions and were of equal competence.