Mr. Roubini, Please Have a Seat Already | Hacker News Reader

Mr. Roubini, Please Have a Seat Already

mast-economy.blogspot.com

8 pointsgne19639 comments

If we pretend the emperor has clothes does that mean he's not naked? This author seems to think so. This is very foolish. Unfortunately, Roubini is likely correct: there probably won't be a turnaround until 2010, and even that will be weak. Contrary to the "green shoots" this author cites, economic conditions are continuing to deteriorate. Housing prices are still falling. Foreclosures continue. Unemployment is rising. Aggregate demand is still well below capacity. And banks are still more or less insolvent, requiring billions, if not trillions, more capital. That some of these indicators might - might! - be declining slower than they have for the last six months does not necessarily mean we're close to recovery. We could bottom out and then stagnate in an L-shaped recession. That's certainly not a given, but it's still a possibility. Even the market rally of the last two months has been suspect: analysts have dubbed it a "crap rally" since it's been led by poor stocks. Quant funds have been hammered and pulled out of the markets, reducing liquidity. Insiders have sold off at the highest levels since October 2007, before the markets began to crash. This seems like a bear market rally that could quickly reverse itself and test the lows, perhaps breaking them. (http://www.businessinsider.com/insiders-selling-like-crazy-2...)

Forgive me if I still put more credence in the analysis of someone who has nailed this crisis, rather than someone who seems like Kevin Hassett's long lost brother.

You are forgiven. The pessimists have had their say long enough. Mr. R is a perma-bear and his doomsday montra has gone on long enough. Spring is here. Let's not pretend, let's look at what's changed since six months ago... quite a bit. Mr R still has his head back there.

Housing prices are not still declining. Unemployment has peaked. Demand is now at capacity. Banks are in significantly better shape than six months ago. Stress tests released tomorrow will show little to no more capital required.

Read the current signs.

I disagree with both of you.

I reckon we're still in a dead cat bounce. I don't buy all the doom and gloom about how we're off to some multi-year U-shaped depression, because I think the system is more flexible than it was 80 years ago, and I think the people in charge of the knobs are also more pragmatic. So, I think there'll be recovery, relatively soon, and things will go up again from there.

That said, I don't think this current up-turn will last. There's still some rotten stuff hidden away - the banks have just claimed big profits, but that was days after an accounting rule change. I reckon they're still hiding toxic assets and there'll be another series of bank busts before we're out of this mess.

My guess, which is based on no economical knowledge whatsoever, is that we'll see a permanent rebound once the DOW hits 4,000. I think this will happen within 6-12 months from now. However, I think that once the rebound does come, things will get better quickly.

My guess is that we are in a sick cat crawl. The panic is over but US (and UK) consumers will be paying down debt and spend less for a long time to come. And once the economy starts to rebound even slightly, oil will be back up very quickly slowing everything down again. That's my fear anyway.

Unemployment has peaked? You are very alone with this prediction. Unemployment always lags behind the economy. If unemployment had peaked, we would be seeing positive GDP numbers right now. And demand being at capacity in the middle of a recession would be very astonishing indeed.

I love your satire!

From the profile, it seems the author deliberately sees the world through pink glasses in order to countervail what he perceives as pessimists. Duh... How can you take someone seriously who actually states he wants to see only one facet of the world. Human perception is warped enough without crippling it with a deliberate (and rather blunt) bias.

I hope Roubini is wrong, but I have to be amused at the people who want to put duct tape over his mouth.

We have too much debt in the U.S. Our solution so far has been to transfer bad debt from the banks to the government, and then add a bunch more government debt in the form of "stimulus" plans. Then, of course, we can have the banks start extending more credit (i.e. increasing debt) to the private sector again.

I don't know what the upper limit of total debt for the U.S. is, but there has to be one. Running up our total debt to the maximum possible level won't work any better in the long run than maxing out five credit cards does for a household.

We're merely on the plateau, rushing headlong to the edge of another precipice.

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