My fundamental question here comes back to this: If the number of reported crimes in the country doubled, what would you expect to happen to the prison population?

In the time period that the incarceration rate in the USA grew 4x, the number of violent crimes in the US grew nearly 7x [1]. This was a much more dangerous country then. The incarceration _per crime_ rate is only about 25% higher than it was in 1960 [2].

None of which to say there is not something deeply, deeply flawed in our country today and in the way we deal with imprisonment. Similarly there are real fundamental issues of race and class that make crime and enforcement problematic.

That said, we seem to look at institutions more than society when we look at social ills. But just like with healthcare and education, the two are inseparable -- we must consider the priors.

[1]: Data sourced from two sources, focusing on 1960-1994: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm and http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_incarceration_rat...

[2] http://www.crimeandconsequences.com/crimblog/documents/pictu...