> If #Snowden can't find asylum, it will be depressingly clear that the US not only eavesdrops on the world but runs it.
- @JPBarlow https://twitter.com/jpbarlow/status/351937848217317380
I am trying to imagine what leverage we have over Russia.
- @JPBarlow https://twitter.com/jpbarlow/status/351937848217317380
I am trying to imagine what leverage we have over Russia.
It's not about leverage, it's about the rules of the game.
Russia and the US manage to be on fairly good diplomatic terms whilst both spending large amounts of money spying on the other. Because it's important to both countries that the diplomatic channels don't collapse completely certain 'expectations' have evolved around intelligence gathering and espionage.
Case in point: if you happened to work for the CIA/FBI and walked into the Russian embassy to try and defect there's a very strong chance the Russians would shop you back to the US (this happened to Robert Hannsen after the fall of the USSR - it was only because of a FBI screw-up he wasn't caught).
It's just not worth the pain for Russia. They almost certainly already have better intelligence on the NSA than Snowden could provide. It's naive to imagine they don't have any human intelligence already in place on that front.
Is it worth more to annoy USA or reaping potential benefits from handing him over for Russia? I don't know, time will tell.
Russians don't want a cold war again
They are slapping the Russians where they hurt most - their wallets. They are probably threatening to lock or freeze Russian head honcho's accounts.