In times of change, make tires | Hacker News Reader

In times of change, make tires

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81 pointsdennybritz15 comments

This is at once a brilliant and useless post. The brilliance is that of course you should provide something that people need that is risk averse, and using the analogy of making tires during the transitional period of wagon to automobile works well. The uselessness is both that everyone cannot make tires, literally or figuratively, and it is very difficult to know what the modern day "tire" is. Is it long lasting, high output energy source? Is it an internet-independent lifestyle-enhancer? Does it make me more energetic without unwanted side-effects or risk to my long-term health?

"...and it is very difficult to know what the modern day "tire" is."

And this difficulty resolves your first point about not everyone being able to make tires!

My guess at a couple of tires: bags/cases and notebooks. Every new shiny device needs a case and people seem to be carrying more than ever around with them. Paper notebooks of various types have really taken off recently.

Another guess: batteries

Also I think it is mostly a gross oversimplification. One could make the argument that a horse and buggy manufacturer is in almost an entirely different manufacturing business than an automobile manufacturer, and thus no more qualified to launch a successful automobile manufacturing business than any upstart. Just because they compete for the same customers doesn't mean they both have the same capabilities.

I would also like more evidence that there was a higher win percentage for tire manufacturers than automobile manufacturers to support the argument that tires were the better business.

Nokia started out as a tyre manufacturer:

http://www.nokiantyres.com/history-in-brief

1898 The Finnish Rubber Works is founded

1904 Factory set up in the town of Nokia

1967 Nokia Corporation established - Rubber, Cable and Paper Divisions

2003 Nokia's ownership in Nokian Tyres ended; Bridgestone Europe NV/SA became the largest shareholder

The article is incorrect in stating that "But actually, of all the automotive entrepreneurs of the turn of the century, only Ford and Mercedes survived"

Off the top of my head automotive companies that were around at the turn of the century and are still around: Peugeot, Renault, Fiat, MAN and Opel (the latter two are owned by other companies now)

Out of your list only Opel really qualifies as an "autmotive entrepreneur". It may have been left off the list because it has been owned by General Motors since the 20's.

Companies like Peugeot, Renault, and Fiat produce a very wide array of non-automotive products. MAN Group was founded in the 1700s and while "truck building activities" commenced in 1903 it was hardly the lion's share of their business.

I think today's entrepreneurs are chasing hot trends too much. So the article was pretty refreshing.

The article didn't do anything for me. What's the takeaway?

Good freelance journalism work will probably always be in demand? Certain industries are more stable than others? Amidst all the encouragement to think outside the box, sometimes thinking inside the box is thinking outside the box in it's own way? Someone has to make the tires of the world and someone has to make the cars? Making the tires is less exciting but more of a sure thing? Hacker news will up-vote bad articles that insinuate some kind of profundity? lol.

I think the actual "lesson" is to seek stability and safe bets in times of change and upheaval. That's advice for the unambitious though. I would say, in times of change, make your move. When the car industry was being born, i'd like to be on the forefront figuring out how to make cars. Old media is dying, new media is rising? How about figuring out how to capture the power of new media to democratize and inform(and monetize) the public.

When you're trying to work in an industry going through change, look for the smaller aspects of that industry which remain stable even during the big changes.

Are you saying that chasing after new industries is ambitious? I would argue that the opposite is true. Trying to change an established industry is a lot more ambitious than trying to change a new industry. There will be a lot more resistance.

Cars may be cool. I guess the takeaway is: Stop caring about being at the forefront of something and instead focus on producing real value.

For every "car trend" that gets big, there are thousands of trends that never reach the mainstream, and die.

> Hacker news will up-vote bad articles that insinuate some kind of profundity? lol.

Has it come to this? Oh no, please say it aint so.

Why cant we move to hyperboria? Or can we?

Correction: Levi Strauss was one person, not two.

I do like orthogonal thinking, and a lot of businesses don't "get" the concept.

My former employer flailed about trying to adapt to Amazon's competitiveness (and anti-competitiveness in some cases) in both the print on demand and eBook market. They kept trying to do with Amazon does (deep discounts, free shipping) and failing to show an improvement on the bottom line.

They could have made a common eBook format that publishes to every platform and done well with it. eBooks tend to be nearly pure profit as opposed to the overhead of dealing with printing and shipping physical product.

Reminds me of the saying - "When there's a gold rush, sell pickaxes and shovels."

I blame VCs for making entrepreneurship an easy way to money, fame, and/or success.

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