Hacker Barnaby Jack unexpectedly dies ahead of Blackhat Conference
reuters.com
reuters.com
Ever since the Snowden leaks HN has seen a massive increase in skepticism, which is healthy, but along with that has come rampant cynicism, unfounded assertions of insidious malign actions that solely cite the fact "we don't know" as evidence. There is a point at which "assuming the worst" goes too far and becomes an echo chamber for conspiracy theory. It did for Michael Hastings, and it does here -- at the very least until we know more.
A man has just died, for crying out loud, and I'm sorry to hear it. Let us use wisdom and reason to assess this, not snarky, dismissive comments.
Going on 1990 data [0]
US white male, age 30: 1.77 / 1000 per year
So in any two week gap, we're looking at about a 7 x 10^-5 chance of dying. Lets call this variable x.
There are about 35 speakers at blackhat, so the chance that at least one of them dies within the two weeks before the conference is 1 - ((1 - x)^35), in english 1 - (chance nobody dies). This works out at ~0.25% or odds of about 1 in 400. That's for one year. For five years, four conferences per year it goes up to about 5%.
So it's not that unlikely. It's not likely to the point where we expect it to happen regularly, thankfully, but it's not in the conspiracy range.
Please don't mistake what I'm writing here as saying it's not shocking or terrible. It's a great loss. I'd just like to provide a counter to the conspiracy side using actual figures and numbers so that the news of him dying isn't taken over.
I'm not saying there's a conspiracy here, I'm just not saying there's necessarily not one.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/26/hacker-death-idUSL...
EDIT: One intelligence agency, CIA, has already killed an American citizen[2].
1. http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/feb/05/obama-ki... 2. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdulrahman_al-Awlaki#Abdulrahm...
How is it a bit of a stretch to think an organization that powerful might kill someone?