There is really no point figuring out the maze - it won't help you in your startup. Even the best founders get the big breaks very very rarely - and often it is a result of the founders personal motivations/vision articulating in a product for which the world is ready (for no mistake/contributions of the founders). History is littered with the best founders who wasted years pursing an idea whose time hasn't come or were not able to reach scale due to some quirk of the markets. (Steve Jobs, Larry Page - Google Plus )
The best and the only strategy for founders is to think by first principles - with a healthy disdain for all rules that mankind has found till now. This will not guarantee that you will not waste years of your life - that is an occupational hazard and "to stare into the abyss and chew glass" comes with the territory - but as a strategy this is your best shot.