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Software generation is automated but when people are talking about software development they mean (technical) design. Design isn't a commodity or product but a one-off process and therefore by definition cannot be automated. The underlying topic isn't about automation of software development - it's about buy vs build, and as ever that depends on specific requirements and circumstances.

That's the wrong question. The very nature of software is automate jobs including software jobs and has since the very beginning. A programmer today is easily one or more orders of magnitude more productive as a programmer 20 years ago. We're all producing much more software with fewer people.

The question is when will the demand for software be low enough that this ongoing process will reduce the number of programmer jobs.

We've had the tools to automate software development for years and there's been almost no movement in that direction.