There are a couple of reasons I have some hope for the security of AES:
1. There's this proof that a trapdoored symmetric cipher is equivalent to a public key system (there's a link in the metzdowd thread somewhere). No one seems to have figured out how to build a public key system with anything close to the efficiency of AES.
2. The specification of AES itself isn't that large. It's not minimal, but neither does it seem to have large arbitrary-looking constants. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kolmogorov_complexity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nothing_up_my_sleeve_number
The NIST Dual-EC DRBG fails on both counts: 1. it is based on an obvious public key system, and 2. it recommends the use of large arbitrary constants that could easily be a trapdoor.
Now is it possible that NSA occasionally intentionally fails to backdoor a NIST standard in order to help us underestimate how often they succeed? Can we ever develop a coherent threat model with the possibility of this kind of adversary?