The end of Apple as we know it?
bbc.com
bbc.com
We are in the tail-end of the lull Apple's top-level product cycle. iPad was released in 2010. That's just shy of 3 years ago. I can't promise Apple's next major product initiative is going to be successful, but commentators whose opinions assume that Apple is not working on anything other than iterating on existing product lines are pretty ignorant. There are tons of exciting trends in hardware and software now that Apple is well poised to take advantage of. They surely have plenty of stuff cooking in the labs, it's just a question of when the stars align enough in their prototypes, their supply chain, and consumer demand for them to release them.
- Lack of attention to detail in all new products (software, hardware)
- High-level loss of strategy
The first effect is something that we could probably expect to see right away if the legends are true. It's debatable if Apple has lost their edge wrt to "shipping it when it's ready." (See: Maps) High-level loss of strategy, however, is not something that will really be knowable for a much longer time period. Apple's high-level strategy was probably set out for the next 10 years while Jobs was still around. Major disruptive technology or trends notwithstanding, I'd imagine Apple will follow the path he laid out.
The point is that any analysts pointing to Apple's lack of blockbuster product releases as being due to Jobs' untimely death are ridiculous, since it assumes the 5-10 year product roadmap they surely had evaporated when he died. (Nevermind the countless prototypes of future products they were probably working on with him.) If analysts want to obsess over the "Jobs is gone so Apple is doomed" narrative, they best focus on places where Apple is producing poorly-designed products that lack attention to detail. There's a dearth of these types of articles, they almost all focus on the "oh my God, Apple hasn't released any new product lines in the period since Jobs died, they must not be working on anything cool!" (The reason being most analysts don't know shit about what makes for good design and how to recognize it, and are not in a position to properly critique Apple's products beyond how their margins are shrinking and OMG SAMSUNG)
It's beyond stupid to assume there are not many internal projects at Apple going on, the big question is if when they ship, if they are worthy of the Apple brand. The truth is, we just don't know. If anything, the lull in the product release cycle we are experiencing may point to the fact that Apple is more than willing to continue to work on stuff until it's ready, which is a core attribute of what has made Apple successful.
(Not saying all of it is undeserved, but it seems like there's a lot more dog-piling happening than actual considered criticism of the company's direction).
On top of that, for years now, gallons of ink have been spilled over hand-wringing about how Apple needs to go downmarket. And now, apparently, we have handwringing over Apple 'going downmarket.'
All this proves, I think, is that articles about Apple generate page views.
But once you end up dropping off of the support curve, it gets frustrating rather quickly. I have a 6 year old Dell laptop and a slightly newer MBP.
The Dell is still finding lots of life even these days, doing time as a file server/NAS device and now a Chromecast laptop for my living room (for Chrome tab broadcast). I recently installed Windows 7 on it and it runs pretty much what I need like a champ -- full driver support and everything.
Now my MBP, I can't really find much use it for other than a little web surfing, and even that is hopelessly crippled due to OS requirements for flash upgrades -- even though the hardware is powerful enough to do what I need, the version of OS X I need to get the latest flash updates (so I can watch Hulu on it for example) doesn't support the device. Hell my virtually unsupported netbook from the same era is more useful at this point.
The iPods segregated themselves among different use cases and different needs. The Shuffle was always pitched as the "active" iPod (see: the clip on the back), the Nano the everyday iPod, and the iPod Classic the one for the serious enthusiast who needs enormous storage above all else.
The smartphone market lacks such segmentation. Everybody wants a phone that makes phone calls, receives texts, and runs apps. There's not really any room to segment price-wise except to simply make the same thing but cheaper.
With news leaking out that Apple will soon introduce a lower-priced iPhone, many investors, managers, competitors and observers are focused on how this will boost Apple’s market share, especially in emerging markets.
Perhaps of even greater interest to me, however, is what this means for Apple as a company, and more generally, whether corporate cultures are fluid enough to accommodate abrupt shifts in strategy.
My conclusion: Leaders should be careful what they wish for. Apple has been a modern marvel. Starting with the revolutionary iPod, the company’s former chief executive officer Steve Jobs spearheaded an attack on the established order in consumer electronic devices. And this was an industry ripe for disruption. When the state of the art is the Sony Walkman, you know there’s real opportunity to change the game.
Of course, Apple moved on from iPod to iPhone and iPad, using iTunes to shake up the music, book, and software businesses in the process. The one commonality among all these innovations is not just that they were new, but that they were radically new.
Ironically, and unusually for a technology company, Apple was not really competing on the basis of technology. The MP3 player that they called iPod was, and is, considerably inferior to other MP3 players in terms of sound quality. The iPod was a sub-standard technological product competing in a technological arena, yet, it won.
Why? Because Apple differentiated on three key elements that resonated with customers: design, access to content via iTunes and brand prestige. The real innovation was embodied in these first two elements, which, when coupled with the iconic leadership of Jobs, collectively captured cool.
That strategy continued with the iPhone, whose brand cache was so strong that customers lined up for hours to buy each new version the company introduced. The early Samsung commercials mocking the herd behaviour of iPhone fans (yes, I was one), waiting to buy a product for features the Galaxy also boasted (and often with superior qualities), were so memorable precisely because they revealed just what was behind Apple’s kimono.
The iPad was also a revolutionary product. It even started a new product category that customers didn’t know existed. A company that breaks the rules, changes the world, and does it all with panache and coolness is a tough act to beat.
That is, until it starts cutting prices. Companies that compete on the basis of price become commodity sellers. That the company Jobs ran could be in a commodity business is almost unfathomable. The next thing you know, they’ll be offering coupons in newspaper supplements for phones that are “new and improved.” Now, there’s nothing wrong, per se, with a strategy that is all about market segmentation, using price as a competitive weapon and targeting promotions to specific customer groups. After all, that’s the bread and butter of the world’s best consumer packaged goods companies, from Procter & Gamble to General Mills. For companies like these, category management and brand management have been elevated to an art form.
Culture shift But that’s not what Apple is, which means if the company wants to shift strategy in this way, its leaders need to retool the culture in as radical a manner as earlier product offerings changed how people worked and lived. We should expect many employees to leave, unhappy to work in a company that is no longer changing the world. We should also expect Apple to bring in new talent with backgrounds from the P&G’s and Unilever’s of the world. Apple stores will need to keep their true believer sales staff energised to sell ten versions of the iPhone to customers who will no longer feel fortunate to even be in the store. They’ll be more demanding customers who will want to know why the iPhone lite sells for $10 more than the latest Galaxy. Maybe Apple will need to bring back its former guru Ron Johnson, who built out the stores, to apply what he learned from his short and unsuccessful stint as CEO of clothing discounter J.C. Penney.
It’s not that a company cannot operate with two opposing modes — radical innovation and category management. Pharmaceutical companies like Novartis have been excellent at developing new drugs while simultaneously managing a variety of consumer brands. But it’s not easy. Novartis, for example, has completely separate divisions in pharma and consumer, with little interaction between them. It’s unlikely the mobile device industry can be similarly segregated into independent camps.
One more thing: When we add in the latest effort from activist investor Carl Icahn to tap Apple’s vast cash on hand to enrich shareholders, the winds of change become even more ominous — at least for those who admire the company’s track record of radical innovation.
The stars are being aligned toward a vision that is the antithesis of what Jobs dedicated his career towards. Rather than making great products that change how people work and play, Apple is on a path toward the mundane, a virtual John Sculley redux where consumer packaged goods are dressed up as high-tech and nobody really cares anymore. The last time this battle was fought, Jobs lost his job to the forces of conformity and short-term profit maximisation. The spiral of ordinariness took more than a decade to overcome — and not until the prodigal son returned to the helm of the company he co-founded. That can’t happen this time. If Apple does choose to embark on the “new and improved” competitive train, many card-carrying acolytes — employees and customers alike – will step off, some to start new ventures that promise grandeur once again, and others to sit home waiting for the new new thing to once again come calling.
And what a loss that would be.
OA has contradictions (Sony Walkman only competition then acknowledging iPod's lack of features vs other mp3 players) and fails to recognise Apple's central drive - ease of use. The iMac, iPod, iTunes made things easy. The lack of features was a feature.
"Apple stores will need to keep their true believer sales staff energised to sell ten versions of the iPhone to customers who will no longer feel fortunate to even be in the store."
The queue that forms outside the Birmingham UK Apple store most mornings these days is people trying to get things fixed. It used to be people trying to buy the new things. In that sense, the OA has a point.
This has not been my experience. Any opinions?
It's a completely pointless statement though.
TL;DR: It's better to be great overall than excelling at just some features while also having crappy downfalls.
I've done this experiment about 100 times with half a dozen people and the results are always the same. Weed makes shit headphones less tolerable, not more tolerable.
I always found the menu wheel too fragile.
They don't kick out a lot of power, so they don't cope well with fancy headphones.
The bad reputation of the ipod's sound stems largely from those white earbuds that came in the box, which are genuinely abominable. That and confirmation bias/placebo/etc.
Yea any digital signal has to pass through things called "DAC's" that obviously come with different quality and price. DAC's along with the power supply/design greatly effect the sound of digital audio.
More to the point -- making a blanket claim about iPods having always been inferior reveals the writer to be an anti-Apple troll.
The author either wasn't around in the 90s, or thinks Apple invented the MP3 player.
The first MP3 player appeared 4 years before the iPod. In the U.S., the Diamond Rio was fairly well known, at least in tech circles (i.e., people who knew what an mp3 was).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Portable_media_player
I've always assumed Apple gained an immense advantage in MP3 players by not being first to market.
You know, in the same way that IBM shifted from being an hardware company that did bits of consulting to a consulting company that also sells hardware.
Or perhaps the author is reading way too much into a commoditization of a product line that is getting a bit long in the tooth?