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Comment by sp332 | Hacker News Reader

http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htm

Unemployment literally doubles if you forgo a college degree.

Seriously? You could also state "Unemployment literally doubles if you're Black or African American." (http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat07.htm)

The way statistics on unemployment, earnings, etc by degree level are being used is disgraceful. It's correlation does not imply causation at the basest level. It's more likely the higher your social and economic background is, the more college you can afford, and the better job you can get.

I see so many people with tons of student debt for a degree that is useless for finding employment. Unless your profession requires a degree (laywer, doctor...) or you can go for free via grant or wealthy parents, most people would be better off entering the work place or starting in a trade. You can always go back to school when you can afford it.

There are A LOT of college graduates out there asking "Would you like fries with that?" to non-grads.

>Seriously? You could also state "Unemployment literally doubles if you're Black or African American."

Your race is not something you can (or should) do anything about, but you can very well try to get a college degree.

>It's correlation does not imply causation at the basest level. It's more likely the higher your social and economic background is, the more college you can afford, and the better job you can get.

That sounds like a direct causual link. Richer -> Degree -> Job. How does "correlation does not imply causation" come into play at all? It's exactly because of being rich that you can get into a better education, and it's because of getting into a better education that you can get into a better job.

>Unless your profession requires a degree (laywer, doctor...)

It's not only the profession that requires a degree. A lot of employeers, nay, most, require a degree too. Especially for higher end jobs.

It's more likely the higher your social and economic background is, the more college you can afford, and the better job you can get.

In our society, getting a college degree has been one of the best ways to improve your social and economic standing. Being the first person in your family to go to college is a huge deal, because it means you're entering a whole different social level.

According to the data in your link, for a "Black or African American", the difference in unemployment from high school graduation to college graduation is 13.4% to 6.3%. That's half, just like I said!

Coldtea: He is saying that there are obvious lurker (or "confounding") variables. It could be that not getting a degree is caused by being poor (or black, etc.) AND that not getting a job is caused by being poor. So not having a degree and not having a job may appear to have a high correlation when in fact they are both driven by a third variable (socio-economic/race/etc.). Look up Simpson's paradox.

Correlation doesn't imply causation, i.e the people who tend to complete large amounts of education would have succeeded whether they had done that education at all.

I'm not saying that that is the actor here, but those statistics don't prove causation.

Of course it does. But is that because of the degree itself or because of the types of people who tend to get college degrees vs. those who don't? I would need to see the outliers and the full data to really come to a conclusion.

12.5% of people is 1 in 8. That's way too many to be considered outliers. More detailed data: http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat07.htm

I hate to be the "correlation != causation" guy, but that definitely applies to the way you're using this data.

What I meant by that last comment is: whatever the reason is for being unemployed, it must be pretty common.

Remember that the schools, at least where I come from, have a system in place to select the "winners", so the correlation is not surprising. I remember in 9th grade, and possibly even before that, it was already starting to become pretty clear who was going tend towards being more successful in life and the schools pushed those people into the college direction. Certain groups who were less favored for success were actively prevented from going into college, even, by way of not being given the necessary credits.

So, it is kind of like you choosing race horses, ignoring all the horses with broken legs, and then proclaiming the only reasons the horses with broken legs did not win was because they were not selected by you to win. Perhaps it is just because the horses had broken legs?

Doubles, what, if you do nothing but what everyone else is doing (pursue the same jobs, etc).

Thiel is presenting an alternative for those who dare. Find something you love, submerge yourself in it, and try to make a business of it. Worse case scenario you fail, but you then have a world of managerial, technical and fundraising experience that you can take on to the next idea you dream of.

Some people are gifted do'ers, some are just gifted learners. For the former, why delay your skillset learning in an artificial college environment?

Interpreting the data that way assumes everyone is equal, which I think most would agree is not true in the real world. There are a lot of factors that prevent people from graduating, or even attending in the first place, that also seem related to what employers look for in the work place (determination, natural ability, etc).

What does the data look like if you limit the set exclusively to those who are fully capable of graduating from college?

I don't doubt this, due to the perception many employers have about the value of degrees. However, if you're just going to start your own business, then this perception is not an immediate concern.

Of course, if you fail in your entrepreneurial efforts then that's another story.

so many possible replies. just one is: learn about the distinction between correlation and causation. :-)

(and as a bonus, this is one of the zillions of things which can be learned before/outside/without/after college.)

Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

I have a GED and 1 year of college. I'm 30 and close to breaking $200K this year between my day gig and consulting.

I'm not saying you don't exist. I'm saying you're rare.

I don't disagree with this. I'm saying that a) it can be done b) the status quo rallies against people without a degree "because how could you ever work this job without one" and c) there are plenty of people who are employed who wasted their time on a degree, but that degree isn't used for their career or current position.

TL;DR The education/career relationship in the US is all fucked up.

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