This is the law of averages, and it is not a law, it is a flaw in the way people think.
No matter whether you think that you'll go when it's your time to go and not a second before, and that none of the decisions that you make will affect when that will happen - it's still more dangerous to live on the inside of an active volcano than on a plain in central Illinois, you shouldn't drive the wrong direction on the freeway, and you should always wear a helmet on your motorcycle, even during short trips.