> if military technology is removed as a factor, the model’s accuracy falls to a mere 16 percent

Imho technology drives culture. Drives our history. History focusing on dates and decisions of individuals or relations between groups of people and their character is bogus narrative. It should focus on technology available and how this technology enabled things to happen.

It's often claimed that our technological development outpaced our cultural development. I think that's not the case. Imho only new technology can cause culture to change. If not for development of nuclear weapons we would never could form culture that makes us civilized enough not to use it.