The Pentagon May Retire “Yoda,” Its 92-Year-Old Futurist

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21 points·fortepianissimo··9 comments

is there any objective measure of 'yoda's' efficacy? because going by the list of his 'star proteges': Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, and Paul Wolfowitz...

We get a list of the things he got right - the "true positives." But no list of the things he got wrong, whether they are false positives or false negatives.

More to the point are the true positives even that impressive? People have been predicting the rise of China and the ascendency of drone warfare for decades.

exactly. also, I would be interested to see how he fares against someone like bruce bueno de mesquita

I think this cannot be trully measured without top-secret data from other nations as well, not likely to be shared with the US. E.g. what if the US war with China was averted just by timely preparation? No-one knows for sure except some Chinese in power positions. Something in relation to USSR? some of people taking the decisions at the time are already dead taking some facts with them, thus impossible to evaluate

The question is: did he see this coming?

I wonder if he predicted the possible economic collapse of USA as well.

You can't complain that someone planned for a war that didn't eventuate, that's the best outcome!

You also pay for the risk reduction, that if the war ever does unfold there are plans and strategies pre-thought out to inform generals in that fast-paced fog and confusion. If it doesn't all the better.

If their prediction was material in avoiding the war, sure, but there is no evidence to that effect.

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