An analysis of the Adobe password dump
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By comparing the hashes for these Gmail users, he then determined that 51% used the same password for duplicate Adobe accounts. He asserts they were "highly technically savvy users" and thus 51% is the lower bound for the population of all Adobe users, thus 51% of the users used the same password somewhere else. Therefore "64 million" user's accounts are compromised on other sites, because they must be using the same password else where.
OK. Here is the problem. You, a savvy user, have multiple accounts, on the same site, why would you use different passwords for your alias accounts? Same password on same site != Same password on all sites.
I've tried to be clear about the methodology. My guess is that most users just reuse a small number of passwords. Anecdotal evidence supports this.
If you have a suggestion for how to derive a better _estimate_ from available data I'd be very interested to hear it.
A better analysis could be done if it were compared with another password leak from another site.
But even if there's no better analysis, the best analysis may still be severely broken.
I think it's debatable actually - while intersecting the list with another does give you less bias, it also reduces the sample size immensely (as happened in the 2011 analysis I linked to), so there are trade offs in both directions.
I'm not claiming that I know exactly how many accounts reuse passwords - I am suggesting that, based on my estimate, it is more than half.
The evidence (that I've linked to) supports this. There are other studies which show upto 60% of password reuse: http://www.troyhunt.com/2012/07/what-do-sony-and-yahoo-have-...
If you can produce a better estimate please go ahead.
A better lower bound would be: find password hashes that occur with high frequency. "password1" and "wordpass" are probably each in the data a few thousand times (or rather their hash is in there a few thousand times).
Then use the logic that if a person is using an extremely common, known insecure password, that they're probably using the same lazy password in a lot of places. Use this as a lower bound, as it is a lot more defensible.
I'm still not "less angry" at Adobe. Probably irrationally so, since data leaks can happen to anyone, but just the idea that my info is in a downloadable archive somewhere for any Joe Shmuck to pickup is driving me up the wall.
A very quick sum of the top 100 providers gives me:
24476611 Google accounts
41177410 Microsoft / MSN / Live / Hotmail / Outlook accounts
24319157 Yahoo accounts accounts
Which surprises me. Maybe I missed something, or I'm double counting. I'm a bit tired and I've probably messed it up.
If this is a database that's been growing over a long enough period, the distribution might be very different compared to a system that's only been around for, say, a year.
http://www.jirasekonsecurity.com/2012/12/adobe-limiting-maxi...
That said, I was still a victim of the hack. Good thing I had a unique password that I didn't share with any accounts.
You could try logging in with the first 12 characters.
Edit later: Ugh, now that I read up on this some more I realize they weren't even hashed, but encrypted instead.
I haven't yet received an email from Adobe, but I would imagine that my email address is likely among the accounts that were leaked in this file.