Still, I'd be cautious.
Which is always interesting because regular people think about whether ideas make sense and investors think about whether they can simply get the idea to the point where a greater fool buys into it. At that point they are right and everyone who thought that the idea wouldn't work is wrong. Ironically.
Netflix, for example, at least has a business model which I see becoming pervasive 15 years down the line (on-demand entertainment over the internet). Of course I don't know if Netflix will be the company to dominate that business model 15 years down the line.
With Twitter, I am not yet convinced this has long-term value here, but maybe I don't get the value it has in other's minds.
(Not to mention that even if it is long term can it be profitable.)
The reason I think "no long term" is that in it's current incarnation it doesn't hold value for "normals" other than people who want to follow celebrities or of course the tech crowd. Or are obsessed with knowing the moment there is an earthquake on another continent. That's essentially entertainment. It's not something you need to know (in masses of course there could be individuals that need to monitor those things.)
I mean sure it is useful to be notified of some event that happens but personally I don't think the need for that is greater than the current alternatives of getting that information (or that a better way to get that information wouldn't be developed).
Most employed people with "regular" jobs are not all obsessed with twitter and the information that it delivers.
Netflix, otoh, delivers a product that people have received for many years by a better method. And the money making part is baked right into the product.
Think of how most of us here who work on SaaS platforms would try to monetize something like Twitter if we just thought it up today and Twitter had never existed. We'd probably put a pricing structure in place along the lines of "$x/mo per million followers" or "$x/mo per $y tweets".
I know plenty of people who like Twitter and use it regularly but it's something they check now and then and if they forget to or miss something it's not a big deal to them.
Do you watch CNN? Do you follow breaking news? Then Twitter has demonstrated value for "normals," as it's become the best platform for breaking stories (for better or for worse).
Look there are people that watch the nightly news every night. Enough people and enough value to advertisers that there is the nightly news. Forgetting though that that market is declining they have a monetization platform in place (partly by legacy because they were the only source of information so it just lives on) and partly because the format is such (tv commercials) that it provides value for advertisers.
The question with twitter is simply how much value can be delivered long term to people that follow (as one example) breaking news. And how much that can be monetized and become a profitable business model.
By the way part of CNN is the entertainment value that can keep an audience captivated for hours watching every last minute of storm or conflict or invasion coverage. It's infotainment that drives the bus there and makes the business model work. Highly crafted and entertaining.
EDIT: Wow! Who are the people buying this at $49 a share?!
http://www.businessinsider.com/what-the-heck-is-wrong-with-t...
https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ATWTR&fstype=ii&ei=TL...