You can't know ahead of time which pool to bet on, unless you know that the ES pool is ahead. There's nothing guaranteeing that pool miners are decentralized, in fact by design they would have to be centralized to keep completed blocks private.
If they were public they could be neutered by one rouge agent in the pool that immediately publishes completed blocks. So you have no way of knowing how far ahead an ES mining pool is. So on what grounds could you decide which pool to help?