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Might be worth taking into consideration that an object will break up into multiple pieces during re-entry.

Thought the odds are still against anyone being hit by anything.

Good point! I just found the Nasa has published on this topic: http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/585584main_UARS_Status.pdf

Risk expected is one in 10000, but for every object if I understand it well. And the current one is rather 1/3200, probably because of its size.