Google Trend for "Buy Bitcoin" over last 90 days
google.com
google.com
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22buy%20bitcoin%22&d...
and for the sell side:
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=%22sell%20bitcoin%22&...
I used Trends, MtGox order data and a few other variables plugged into a spreadsheet that I updated every hour to successfully trade through the last Apr-March bubble and exit 6-12 hours from the top[0].
It doesn't work as well during this price hike, since the growth is coming from places that we can't see as well and aren't as transparent.
I'm pretty sure it didn't work during this publicity wave because it was so large and fast that many U.S. sellers ran out of coins (including Coinbase).
This guy's numbers aren't perfect but the article shows some key points about how the Bitcoin ecosystems numbers are kinda made up and the ecosystem is flawed as a trading platform (which is all it really is now). http://falkvinge.net/2013/09/13/bitcoins-vast-overvaluation-...
1) Regarding volatility, I compare Bitcoin to what would happen if a small startup were publicly traded - of course it's going to be volatile. Over time the bubbles will get less bubbly and the price will smooth out. This is already happening, even if it doesn't seem like it.
2) Bitcoin is not just a currency, it's a distributed ledger which can be used to track ownership of any virtual or even physical property, including other currencies. There are a number of people working on these layers on top of Bitcoin already. Eventually you'll be able to get some of the advantages of Bitcoin-the-distributed-ledger without being exposed to Bitcoin-the-currency (expect perhaps for transaction fees).
With a perfectly deflationary currency, this is false. And the yearly average Bitcoin exchange rate has shown to be perfectly deflationary, so far. And this can go on forever as long as the gross product of the Bitcoin economy grows (even slightly) year after year.
In other words: if everyone who bought bitcoins averaged their buys over one year, and held them for at least one year, they would have made money:
- the average price of a Bitcoin in 2010 was $0.05 (order of magnitude)
- the average price of a bitcoin in 2011 was $5 (order of magnitude)
- the average price of a bitcoin in 2012 was $10 (order of magnitude)
- the average price of a bitcoin in 2013 was $100 (order of magnitude)
yet this is bitcoin, so people believe because... well because they've wasted so much damn time and money setting up server rigs to solve contrived hash equations. real currencies don't have to incentivize/trick their user-base in order to grow
To answer your ramblings: you are wrong, currencies have to be compared to other currencies to estimate their worth. The Euro is compared to the US dollar. The Japanese Yen is compared to the British Pound. Etc. So it is normal to compare Bitcoin to other currencies.
The "contrived hash equations" are necessary to make it decentralized, which is the greatest property that Bitcoin has over other currencies. If you don't understand why decentralization is important, I suggest reading: http://bitcoinmagazine.com/7798/decentralization-key-to-bitc...
i hope the next bitcoin scammer who tries to change my mind doesn't send me to "Bitcoin Magazine". That's like Amway convincing you they're legit by sending you to the company site. Plus I have no issue with the decentralized aspect & some of the finer points of digital currency. It's just that this wild value swing is absolutely not a sign of Bitcoin's success. It's utter failure.
No it's not. As a user of a currency, you should have to compare it to other currencies to know how much it's worth. You know how much it's worth by what goods and services it buys you. Don't believe me? Next time ask someone on the street how many Japanese Yen a USD is worth. Unless they frequent Japan or trade currencies, they will have no clue.
The fact that a value of bitcoin has to be derived from an exchange rate means it's not a good currency yet, it's just a speculative financial investment.
another way i've thought about this -- say i tell you a bicycle is worth $1,000. you would laugh and say "hell no" but then if the next day you saw someone buying a bicycle for $1,200 then later that week 3,000 you might think "god damn i gotta get me on of them bicycles. the darn things multiply their value all the time". then you look out your window & realize..... nobody is riding bicycles, it's just the big price stickers at the stores are changing so much that people BELIEVE there is a demand when they can see with their own eyes that bicycles have not taken the commuter world by storm. they are just sitting in people's garages and occasionally some are bought/sold because now they're considered value stores. but when are they ever gonna get used as bicycles...
and since bitcoiners say "but you can use it as moneyyyy" let's add in that "some stores start accepting bicycles as payment for things like food, assuming that they in turn can later sell those bicycles since obviously they will never depreciate in value, right?"
o and let's not forget like half the bicycle supply is sitting in warehouses owned by the bicycle manufacturers, who buy and sell them to themselves to create the illusion of greater transaction volume :)
(What you can buy with a currency is merely an indirect derivative of exchange rates, in a modern economy running on global trade.)
You have a cargo cult mentality. If a little kid puts on his dad's pants, is he now his dad?
If I told you that each word in the dictionary was now worth $700/USD would you respect the dictionary as a viable form of currency because it has "an exchange rate"? Not unless you could use it to buy things at the supermarket -- that's what the commenter above you was pointing out. Any currency that buys you 1 apple on Monday vs 100 apples on Friday is not a successful currency at all. Bitcoin is going to crash before it reaches a point where it's viable as a transactional currency. Right now those exchange rates just mean "the current value you rubes think these coins hold!!"
Anyway I just recommend people get a job instead of playing with these stupid digital coins. Even if you're on the winning end, do you want your legacy to the world to be that you took advantage of a global ponzi scheme? Try to cure cancer instead.
A commodity is, for example, fruits, textiles, metals, etc, all of which are traded on financial exchanges around the world.
Are you dense? That's the problem. The majority of a currency's users SHOULDN'T BE TRADERS.
And it's not even math or programming theory or really... anything!! It's just pseudo-intellectual libertarian propaganda written by some 14 yr old girl.
lololololololololololololololol talking smack to you greedy bitcoiners is gonna get me kicked off this site for sure. it's too irresistible and i don't feel guilty for it in the least
I'm not really interested in your retort. I just feel like something needs to be said. Quite a bit of HN has been turning onto bitcoin lately. They'll defend you and they're losing sight of reason.
They need to keep a straight face and create an army of believers in order to succeed with their profiteering.
> losing sight of reason
That's precisely my issue. If you go to /r/bitcoin the conversation is often more focused on "How do we get past these annoying speculators to actually realize the dream of a cryptocurrency?". I respect that. But 90% of the people involved at this point are NOT that.
As a side note yes I thought "mofo" was totally mild too and the whining led me to post much harsher comments lol. I hate cultures that try to silence they're detractors. Good news for me is HN karma is pretty low on my list of priorities.
you're right tho it's a waste of time. have a nice life down in the mines lol
don't be silly, a suit would get dirty
personally i won't buy any because i think it's immoral but if you don't have qualms like that sure go for it just PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE don't spend significant time/energy on it & pretend to everyone that you are some sort of economist because you read the lit on "bitcoinhypesite.com". learn guitar instead, and don't play acoustic at parties. play electric, in your basement & unleash it when you're a demon at it
http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=sell%20bitcoin&date=t...
I suspect we're in for another gradual climb with occasional dips and peaks until there's yet another media blitz around it. Whether it will reach a tipping point and become actual, you know, currency, for a large percentage of people is up in the air. But, it's already got some value for a lot of people.
For one thing, Coinbase has consistently run out of Bitcoins the last few days.
For another, I think a lot of folks will make their first purchase on Bitstamp, since it's really the biggest exchange now, and one of the most professionally run.
I'm gonna assume you're outside of the US; the difficulty and expense of sending an international wire from a US bank is rarely grasped by people outside of the US. My bank charges $40 for a wire transfer in US dollars, and more for one in the destination currency. My first BTC purchase was only ~$300...the wire transfer would have been more than 10% of that.
I agree that Coinbase running out of coins would have had an impact. But, I noticed that they were replenishing them relatively quickly...I tried to make a buy one evening, was told the daily coin limit had been reached, and an hour later was able to buy, and bought a little more the next morning.
I suspect they were sitting at their computers all night during the run up to $1000, trying to manage fraud while also trying to buy and sell as many BTC as possible.
Anyway, I'd be surprised if there's another big spike...but, a gradual climb back up to $1k and beyond does seem entirely realistic to me.
They're also a direct exchange, and if they started to run low on coins (thus driving the price higher), someone would happily provide more coins via arbitrage from elsewhere.
They reportedly prevent about 3% of orders from going through for that reason (and I seem to recall there was someone complaining about it here in a previous HN thread, as they'd run into the fraud filters and couldn't place an order as rapidly as they wanted).
They also limit less verified accounts to buying (I think) 1BTC per day, so someone doing it to manipulate the market (rather than simply by BTC fraudulently) would need to create hundreds or thousands of fraudulent accounts, back them up with a US bank account (or some other supported funding source), and then get past the fraud filters.
To raise the daily buying limit you have to verify a credit card, and perform other verification steps. I think it's more careful than my bank about security; at least on the surface.
Are you bonkers? Price rose nearly 10 times in about a week. That's practically textbook definition of a bubble. Wait until it crashes and comes down to 200$.
买(buy)比特币 or 卖(sell)比特币 search volume too low.