Comment by ashray | Hacker News Reader

Comment by ashray | Hacker News Reader

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This is a valid question. One that I think about often.

It's not easy to predict the valuation. For that, we would need to know how much business is done in bitcoin in the future. That's anyone's guess. Will it do $1 trillion or will it do more ?

The price isn't always going to rise at this rate. That's for certain. However, yes, there will probably be a long term rise until bitcoin finds it true usage, market cap, and as a result of this, it's value with steady deflation going forward.

While, I'm not sure what an economist's opinion on this is, the fact that you are encouraged to spend money because it's worth less in the future (inflationary fiat money) leaves a really bad taste in my mouth. Consumerism is a horrible disease and our planet is suffering from it every. single. day.

That brings me to bitcoin and it's deflationary nature. Well, you're still going to buy the stuff you want to buy. Then, you'll save more because you know it'll be worth more later. Why wouldn't you buy the things you always need ? (food, shelter, a few gadgets, etc.) Should I spend on a new iPad when I might be able to buy 6 months worth of food with that money a year or two later ?

You'll save as much as you can. You'll consume less junk. Isn't that a good thing ? Shouldn't we ask ourselves if we really need all the crap we keep buying ?

These are interesting questions that challenge the entire nature of mindless consumerism that most of us indulge in these days.

Also, if the only reason you spend your money is because it's going to be worth less tomorrow then you have bigger problems than bitcoin ;)

PS - I don't mean you personally, just stating some thoughts.

You aren't intended to hold dollars themselves as a very-long-term store of value. But most people don't do that anyway. They put them in (for small values) a bank or (for larger values) investments where the capital is used to create more wealth.

If I had 1/1000th of the country's wealth in dollars under my mattress or gold buried in my yard or bitcoins in the cloud, and then go into suspended animation for 50 years, there is no reason I should still expect to have 1/1000th of the country's then-increased wealth. My capital wasn't doing anything to grow the economy.

You can argue "but wouldn't it be great if you could take that 50-year nap and have more money?" Yes, it would. You have also described an excellent reason for someone to start a pyramid scheme, but not for everyone else to want to get in on it.

The problem with your premise is that you are taking up bitcoin and trying to fit it into today's world view where banks lend out YOUR money for relatively high interest and give you some interest if you're lucky. Now, you have to keep your money in a bank because it appears to be safe, etc. and of course all your arguments about creating liquidity in the economy are correct.

However, there is a lack of choice in this scenario. Due to the way the economy functions, I do have to put my money into a bank, I do have to look into investments because otherwise my hard earned money is worth less in the future. Let's leave the discussion about that being fair or unfair, etc. because this is a subject where people tend to have strong opinions.

Right, so coming to bitcoin. Why can't there be an entity that allows you to lend your bitcoin as a loan and you get a higher return (higher % interest than regular deflation) because you lent your money out (i.e. took some risk) ? Say deflation is 5% per year and you can give out a loan through some entity and get 10% returns ?

Isn't this what the bank does right now for you ? But do you have much of a choice in the current scenario ? Right now, you take on the risk of a bank without having a say in it. It's either that, or have your purchasing power slowly eroded over time.

I personally don't like arguing about inflation vs. deflation because I am not an economist but I can on my own think of trivial solutions that turn the problem around. Maybe these solutions are ultra complex to implement in practice, but so are the economy, currency markets, stock markets, etc.

Can I argue that it would be great if I worked hard to earn money and save it, and have it at the very least, retain it's value and purchasing power in the future? Why should the capital that I have worked hard to earn lose it's value because it somehow doesn't help the economy ? Helping the economy comes with it's own risks. Why do I not have a say in whether I have that choice or not ? What happens if my bank goes bankrupt ?

The fact it would be great (if you could preserve 1/1000th of a country's wealth this way) is precisely one of the reasons why Bitcoin succeeds.

You may argue "it should not be this way" but people are tired of losing 20%+ (in some countries, 3-4% in the US) of their wealth yearly due to inflation.

Bitcoin elegantly fixes a very real problem of inflation. You cannot wave your hands telling people "this is the way things should be, deal with it".

> "That brings me to bitcoin and it's deflationary nature. Well, you're still going to buy the stuff you want to buy. Then, you'll save more because you know it'll be worth more later. Why wouldn't you buy the things you always need ? (food, shelter, a few gadgets, etc.) Should I spend on a new iPad when I might be able to buy 6 months worth of food with that money a year or two later ? You'll save as much as you can. You'll consume less junk. Isn't that a good thing ? Shouldn't we ask ourselves if we really need all the crap we keep buying ?"

Presently, you can't really buy things you "need" with Bitcoin. Ask a landlord if you can pay your rent in BTC or a bank if you can pay your mortgage with it. Take your Bitcoin wallet to the grocery store and try to check out with it. You'll get blank stares at best.

On the other hand, you can buy things like iPads with BTC. The Bitcoin economy is not an economy of essential items right now, and this is largely because even if it were possible to pay for essential items in BTC it would still be just as easy if not easier to do so using some sort of fiat money.

The whole philosophical justification for Bitcoin is fine, and I am on board with that. But the present price dynamics of Bitcoin are directly undermining its viability as a currency and the philosophical motivations that support it. Satoshi was frustrated with the destabilizing monetary policy of the Fed, but having rampant price speculation due to an inherently depreciating currency isn't any better.

There are very few direct ways in which you can currently use bitcoin, I completely agree with that. People are using indirect ways now though, for example, a lot of people are using target gift cards bought off gyft to make their grocery purchases. Of course, this is a highly impractical solution but there will be middlemen helping out until actual retailers start accepting bitcoins. Now you can buy a subway sandwich, soon newegg will start accepting bitcoins (yes, not everyday purchases but a big retailer endorsement is still a big win!). When something happens in a fragmented way around the world it gets harder to gauge it's momentum. Say 10,000 retailers in SF started accepting bitcoin, it'd be huge news vs 10,000 retailers all over the world - no one would notice.

The rampant volatility of bitcoin is bad for business but it's analogous to several people jumping onto a boat and rocking it a lot. Eventually we get a bigger more stable boat that isn't so easy to rock any more. (a $1.2MM sell off a year ago would have tanked BTC value, now it doesn't even dent it.., this happened yesterday while I was watching the bitstamp order book)

As the market cap of bitcoin increases it will get harder and harder to cause huge swings in it's value (sort of like the 51% attack is now impossible.. or adding a server farm to take over the bitcoin network).

But to get there it will have to go through this process.

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