No, you're getting it confused. For a start, the fund that I bought into advertised exactly what they expected (it is based on a computerised trading model, so they know what to expect if it worked). It is not 'chance' that I happened onto a fund - what we are talking about is random chance that anyone can have consistent above-market returns. Certainly it is possible for any one individual to have a chance occurence of a high return one year- the EMT would say that next year the chance is for a loss. When people or firms put together year on year of consistent returns above market, that is no longer chance.