I feel that the situation proposed in the article is a completely false dichotomy. It's a myth that a good team sits in a meeting room for 4 days and codes a perfect product in one swoop on Friday. At the same time, paying someone in KLOCs is probably a guarantee that you'll have a bad time.

This is an issue I struggle with on a regular basis, as we outsource a lot of our development work. We work on a project basis, but work very closely with our partners to help them make good estimates, maximize capacity, and minimize their (and thus our) risk. I don't want people to work overtime, nor do I want them under-committing.

My experience is that watching someone's commits, even from far away, is actually a damn good indicator as to how capacity is being managed on a project. Every project is different, but coders code: if they're not committing frequently and regularly, it's time to check in.

Human beings normally don't have flat productivity, so activity spikes are normal. But low activity in a period means there is not enough work and/or there will be a large spike later, which for me means risk.