Distinguishing yield advances from yield plateaus in historical crop production
nature.com
nature.com
http://www.wri.org/blog/global-food-challenge-explained-18-g...
As a geneticist, I'm more than slightly offended that they don't include GMOs in the arsenal of solutions though.
Myself, I look forward to microchips that manufacture carbohydrate and protein chains directly from electricity and air (water?). Then food, water and energy will truly become fungible commodities. And grain becomes irrelevant.
They use complicated theories to explain lower yield. But they totally ignore subsidies which motivate farmers to grow less. Modern 'organic' agriculture also lowers yield and is ignored in this study.