"John Cannarella and Joshua Spechler, from the US university's mechanical and aerospace engineering department, have based their prediction on the number of times Facebook is typed into Google as a search term."
That's a convenient methodology, but of course it's a methodology that cannot be applied to anything before the availability of Google search data, so it doesn't even provide a model for explaining why Google supplanted AltaVista. (Hint: even at its healthiest, I don't think most users of AltaVista found AltaVista by doing a Google search first.)
"They tested various equations against the lifespan of Myspace, before applying them to Facebook."
Myspace, of course, is the classic example of a social networking site that once looked unstoppable, until it pretty much died. But data-fitting to just one data set is probably not enough model testing for making a prediction about a different social networking site.
"But Facebook's chief financial officer David Ebersman admitted on an earnings call with analysts that during the previous three months: 'We did see a decrease in daily users, specifically among younger teens.'"
Now we're talking about some meaningful data that actually pertains directly to Facebook. If Facebook corporate officers are concerned about a trend, maybe that trend is really meaningful to Facebook's business prospects.
"Investors do not appear to be heading for the exit just yet. Facebook's share price reached record highs this month, valuing founder Mark Zuckerberg's company at $142bn."
Well, that's the nub of the issue for anyone who buys shares of Facebook stock. If it still looks like holding Facebook stock allows a profitable exit, maybe there is nothing to worry about here (at least for investors).
The article engages in further speculation about Facebook making a lot of money in the future. That could happen. My prediction about Facebook stands: "Facebook will go the way of AOL, still being a factor in the industry years from now, but also serving as an example of a company that could never monetize up to the level of the hype surrounding it. I used to see friends on AOL. I never felt an obligation to help AOL monetize just because of that. Networks are a dime a dozen. Right now, Facebook is a very convenient network, and I like it. I do not predict that Facebook will make a lot of money because of users like me."
I could be proven wrong, but that's what I think the future of Facebook holds. I admit my methodology is just about entirely drawing an analogy with AOL, which I used a lot back in the day.