The likelihood of Buffett actually paying this prize is even lower than that of someone actually winning it.
You're basically paying the expected value(cost?) of the prize, plus a fee to the person who's insuring you. That way a billion dollar contest will not actually cost you a billion dollars, even in the event that someone wins.
edit: And where I say $1 million, do some hand waving with the odds and figure out a number on which both parties agree