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Comment by JonnieCache | Hacker News Reader

Does anyone have insight into russia's possible role in all this? It does seem to give them a very handy excuse to consolidate their cherished buffer zone.

EDIT: by "them" I'm referring to the russian establishment, not the people in general.

EDIT2: I suspected this post was a bad idea. I really don't mean to accuse a whole nation of maliciousness. I just want a little guidance in the geopolitical wilderness of mirrors. This probably isn't the time to be asking.

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I don't have an answer, but I do think this is a legitimate question to ask. My hunch is that these are just freak accidents and have nothing to do with the bigger picture. Somebody got pushed far enough and violence ensued. However, IMO the whole thing started because of Russian influence and if Yanukovych didn't have the (at least mental) support of the Russian government he would probably have backed down by now.

On the national scale in Ukraine, I think you are right. But on the scale of individuals, there really are a bunch of vicious people who hate Russia, hate the EU, hate America and also hate the fatcats of Ukraine like Yanukovich. But they love violence. When people like that are allowed to mass together, violence is inevitable. The demonstrations in November and December were a completely different crowd of people and included a lot more ordinary people.

I found this article helpful for ELI5: "9 questions about Ukraine you were too embarrassed to ask" http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/01/30...

I don't know if Russia is responsible for anything that's happened so far. This fight is largely between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians living in Ukraine. If this escalates too far, Russia will intervene and probably on behalf of Yanukovych.

But everyone in eastern Europe knows that the large groups of ethnic Russians around act as puppets of Mother Russia. The classic example of that was the riots in Estonia.

The problem is it means any actual protesting by Russians over legitimate grievances is likely to be viewed suspiciously.

My understanding is that ukraine was veering towards closer alliance with europe before all this started. That makes the sudden emergence of violent uprising, possibly necessitating american-style "intervention" on the part of the russian government rather convenient. If that does come to pass, I will be extremely suspicious.

Of course this is just ill-advised idle speculation.

The funny thing is that RUSSIA is veering towards closer alliance with Europe, and continues to do so. An awful lot of the changes that Putin has brought to Russia are exactly the kind of things that the EU demands of its member countries. But the other former Soviet republics are all lagging behind.

This makes sense. Russia seeks to continue and expand control over at least some ex-USSR countries of which Ukraine is the second largest (Russia being the largest). Putin wants to further Russia's trade with the EU because it's profitable, but he does not want Ukraine, Belarus, etc. to do the same independently. From his point of view it's best if Russia trades with the EU, while Ukraine trades with Russia. That way Moscow controls exactly what Ukraine can and cannot get/do.

I think it's simpler than that. Russia doesn't really operate using these types of interventions. It's a lot easier to just call the Ukrainian president and say "do as I say or I will destroy you". But you are right about Ukraine trying to open more relationships up with the EU and Russia not liking that. This is exactly how this whole thing started.

Yanukovych's side doesn't claim to represent ethnic Russians and/or fight against Ukrainians. They indiscriminately fight any opposition. None of the protesters' demands have anything to do with ethnic Russians, who by the way join the protests too. So no, this conflict isn't between ethnicities.

Does anyone have insight into United States possible role in all this?.... oh wait http://youtu.be/qv7qy7jot30

If by Russia, you mean Putin, then Putin is basically sponsoring Yanukovich. From my knowledge Russia and Ukraine had a special multi dollar transaction, after which the Ukraine has decided not to pursue EU membership.

The primary reason is not 15 billions, but trade preferences from Russia. It's 2004 all over again, and Ukraine wants to sit on two chairs - it wants to develop closer ties with the West and doesn't want to lose preferences from Moscow.

I'm not trying to call into question your level of the awareness of this situation but what exactly do you believe a "special multi dollar transaction is"?

Yanukovich sat down with the Euro leaders and couldn't come to an equitable agreement that would help Ukraine in any way. Russia on the other hand offered a $15 billion bailout to help out the Ukrainian economy and a guaranteed low price for natural gas. The elected leader of Ukraine probably thought cooperating with Russia might be a better deal for Ukraine than Euro's offer of asking something for the promise of nothing.

Apparently, people disagreed with that notion.

I suspected this post was a bad idea.

I'd say this post doesn't make much sense. Pro-western ukrainains riot against Yanukovich, who they think took away their european dream and you try to blame the Russians.

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