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Thanks for this correction; I was under the impression that opportunistic encryption had already been chosen based on HTTP/2 descending from SPDY, but I clearly am not following the WG all that closely.

Is a fair reading of your blog post that it has a high likelihood of succeeding?

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Only time will tell. It's all still in progress. Of all the major browser vendors (Firefox, Chromium, IE) present at the Zurich HTTP/2 interim meeting, only Patrick McManus (Firefox) has expressed interest. Notably, he's a co-editor of that Alternate-Services internet-draft.

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