I still would have expected worse, just from the sheer bad publicity press. It's also hard for me to believe that the market had fully priced in the possibility that MtGox would collapse, and that price was only about 1/2 - 2/3s the value of BitCoin. I would easily have expected 2-3 factors of magnitude with a good odds of a full-on death spiral.

So far, I've been wrong, and rationality compels me to adjust my beliefs in reaction to that. (Bearing in mind the market may still remain irrational longer than I can retain solvency in my opinions. Still... this is not what I would have predicted two weeks ago.)