The real division is whether you have to install anything.
I just can't help but think that for webapps to get fundamentally richer, they are going to need increasing access to client resources, such as the ability to communicate with each other across process boundaries. At that point, security concerns will probably dictate a somewhat more formal installation process for them as well.
Kind of the same thing that we see in web sign-up forms where for every extra piece of information you ask, a huge number of potential users drop off.