Hacker News Reader

In the VERY FIRST game to finish, 11 seed Dayton upsets 6 seed Ohio State. Nate Silver had given Dayton a 25% chance of winning, so just about everyone who used his numbers as a guide is out now. Buffett's odds just got MUCH better.

View on HN

In some numerical sense Buffett has better odds now.

I think in a conversational sense, they didn't really change, just because the reasonable conversational description of the odds was ~0 to begin with.

At least one of the 12 seeds wins almost every year. An 11 seed upsetting doesn't really impact the odds much.

Not that anyone is going to win his money, but this one game doesn't change anything.

In absolute terms, you're right. But in relative terms this just eliminated the majority of brackets. And since Nate Silver's bracket is probably one of the more intelligently picked and widely disseminated out there, a huge number of the people who probably had better odds of winning just got knocked out. So in relative terms, it absolutely changed things.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com