Check out ASP.Net sometime, and see some of the innovations they've been making over the last 5 years and you'll see why Guthrie is still superman in a red shirt.
To me that's indicative of an organization consisting of silos.
I say that to say this; I am no luddite. I've been shopping for a Win8.1 tablet to replace the Google I/O Samsung tablet and perhaps maybe my mbp. Win8.1 tablets are compelling due to the full blown desktop environment. However, the MS dev ecosystem is a bit daunting as the lifecycle or shelf life of their tech is never really known (Silverlight comes to mind here).
I work as a Firefighter (day job) and our municipality are solidly MS integrated. This doesn't look it will change in the short to near term as city IT is steadfast MS. You can byod to work at the station...however, we have two laptops on every engine and ladder apparatus. The tools we use for EMS calls are, quite frankly, complete shit. Web apps seem like a logical solution until you see how they are used in the field... latency, network i/o and the choice for browsers are limited among many/varied issues (hipaa, etc).
All that to say, I believe in Scott Guthrie. I follow him on Twitter and he seems like a logical and candid MS employee from what I've read on his blog over the years. The changes that I've seen in MS recently give me a bit of confidence to test the native development side and perhaps fix our shit software.
Richard Feynman's quote comes to mind. "For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled."
Although silverlight is not actively being developed anymore it will be supported for a considerable period of time [1]. If you have invested time to develop/learn Silverlight applications, your time was not wasted. The underlying technology (XAML) is also used for desktop (WPF), metro (windows store app) and windows phone 8 applications.
Disclaimer: My first language is not english.
1. http://support.microsoft.com/lifecycle/default.aspx?LN=en-us...
C# is nice, F# is nice, and I like powershell. Modern windows applications look nice as well.
I remember going on the web and getting infected with toolbars and what not within about 5 minutes. Its not so bad anymore.
Microsoft has been moving, but there is so much more movement outside the Microsoft ecosystem that it's easy to miss when Microsoft makes changes to its technology, even those that shake their entire ecosystem. Microsoft is just one more ecosystem among many and a very insular one.
No Microsoft launch since .NET has had any significant impact on my daily life and it would be perfectly rational to completely ignore them.
By this I can say that Apple is stale and dormant. No launch since the iPhone has any impact on my daily life, and even that is simply because it's influence on Android.
I see a steady flow of news of new Ubuntu releases, new PostgreSQL functionality, and miscellaneous HPC/Big Data technologies, but that's because I pay attention to that. I wonder if it would be different if I spent my day writing code in Windows, for a Microsoft stack.
I've actually been finding MS products more easy to work with lately, while Ubuntu has been getting more frustrating. Some of that is due to familiarity, but there's also a lot of decisions I've not agreed with. In general, I like that I can write something that works for a few years in Windows - I don't have to worry if the latest package updates are going to break everything. I've lost weeks fixing dependency bugs, and I don't seem to have the same issues on Windows.
The server side is a totally different story. Windows Server, system center, sql, etc have been going gangbusters for years.
Speaking as an ex-Microsoftie, my guess is that you'll see some of the innovation behind ModernUI apps back-propagated to thick client desktop stuff in the next major release of Windows.