http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=503959
There is still a space for users of desktop apps. I know many of my users love the permanence/physicality/"realness" of it. (So much so, in fact, that a third of the ones who use it online pay extra to get a backup of the desktop application on a CD.)
I just am having a hard time making the numbers work for being a developer of them.
I'm in a sort of unique position where I can split test very similar people into the desktop or online versions of my software. I get more clicks on ads for the online version. It is easier to get them to sign up for the online version than it is to download. It is easier to contact them about the online version. It is even fractionally easier to get them to pay for it (!).
I'm sort of obsessive compulsive about tracking support emails. They're running 30:2 in favor of the desktop app since I launched the online version. Sales run 50-50... and that number is starting to heavily favor the online version as I see the higher ROI it gets and promote accordingly.
I was a skeptic. Reality is making me a believer.